‘Bond King’ Jeffrey Gundlach says there’s no doubt ‘we’re in a mania,’ but gold is a ‘real asset class’
Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, has delivered a striking assessment of the current investment landscape, arguing the U.S. equity market is engulfed in a “mania” while simultaneously identifying gold as the primary refuge, elevating the metal to the status of a “real asset class.”Recommended VideoThe “Bond King” told Bloomberg’sOdd Lotspodcast on Monday the U.S. equity market is “among the least healthy” he’s seen in his entire career. Citing metrics such as the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio and the cap ratio, he noted “all the classic valuation metrics are off the charts.”The billionaire investor asserted there is “no argument against the fact that we’re in a mania,” likening the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) to previous manias about, for instance, electricity—except he noted electricity stocks peaked in 1911 and never recovered afterward, far before commercial implementation. He cautioned that while transformative technologies like electricity were world-changing, the market tends to price in the future benefits “very quickly and excessively.” He said investors need to be “very careful about momentum investing during, mania periods.” Gundlach said he sees the market as “incredibly speculative” and speculative markets inevitably “go to insanely high levels.”Gold: The allocation for real valueAgainst the backdrop of high financial asset valuations, Gundlach has shifted his focus toward hard assets, specifically championing gold. He noted he has been “very, very bullish on gold” and it was his “number one best idea for this year.”Gundlach said he believes gold has cemented its place in serious portfolios because it’s now treated as a “real asset class.” Crucially, the demand for gold is no longer limited to “survivalists” or “crazy speculators.” Instead, people are allocating “real money because it’s real value.”Gold has validated this belief by being the “top performing asset, for the year, certainly for the last 12 months.” Although gold seems to be consolidating at high levels, Gundlach still suggests maintaining an allocation, perhaps around 15% of a portfolio—no longer 25%—because it appears to have played out somewhat.Some longtime skeptics on gold have come around on it, such as JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who toldFortuneeditor-in-chief Alyson Shontell in October it was “one of the few times in my life it’s semi-rational to have some in your portfolio.”It could easily go to $5,000 or $10,000 in environments like this,” he added. (Dimon’s comments came shortly before a plateau in the price, although it remains slightly over $4,000 per ounce at press time.)Other long-time equities-focused voices are saying the current market is so uncertain investors should consider alternative assets. NYU Finance Professor Aswath Damodaran, for instance, told his longtime colleague Scott Galloway this week “collectibles,” even baseball cards, are a rational investment at the moment. “If that’s where you want to put some of your money into is baseball cards, because you’ve truly done your work on baseball cards, who am I to step in and say that’s not a great place to put your money?”Radical portfolio shiftGiven the dual realities of extreme speculation and changing market paradigms, Gundlach advised investors to dramatically reduce their exposure to traditional financial assets. He argued the traditional 60/40 portfolio (equities/bonds) should be drastically adjusted.“I think financial assets broadly should … have a lower allocation than typical,” he said. Instead of 100% financial assets, investors should have a maximum of 40% in equities, and he recommends fixed income should only account for about 25% of a portfolio. He prefers allocating the remainder to real assets like gold and holding cash due to the “incredibly high” valuations across markets.Gundlach’s comments came ahead of a week with major earnings set to be disclosed, including Nvidia, with mounting concerns over a bubble in that space. The S&P 500 is down 1.45% over the past month, but Damodaran warned Galloway he believes the market is not pricing in the risk of a major downturn. He said that, perhaps more than any time in the last 20 years, there’s a significant risk of a “market and economic crisis that is potentially catastrophic.” Also on Monday, Bank of America Research released its global fund manager survey, which found, for the first time in two decades, a majority of the panelists representing $550 billion in assets under management were concerned companies had overinvested, with 45% of them saying “AI bubble” was the largest tail risk.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Analyst who called the dotcom bubble says Americans are turning a deaf ear to AI warnings—and a worse meltdown than 2008 looms
Albert Edwards, the outspoken global strategist at Société Générale—a figure who even refers to himself as a “perma bear”—is certain that the current U.S. equity market, driven largely by high-flying tech and AI, is experiencing a dangerous bubble. (Société Générale, to be clear, does not hold the view that U.S. stocks or AI stocks are in a bubble, noting that Edwards is employed as the in-house alternative view.) While history often repeats itself, Edwards warned recently that the circumstances surrounding this cycle’s inevitable collapse are fundamentally different, potentially leading to a deeper and more painful reckoning for the economy and the average investor.Recommended Video“I think there’s a bubble but there again I always think there’s a bubble,” Edwards told Bloomberg’s Merryn Somerset Webb in a recent appearance on her podcastMerryn Talks Money,noting that during each cycle there is always a “very plausible narrative, very compelling.” However, he was unwavering in his conclusion: “It will end in tears, that much I’m sure of.”Edwards toldFortunein an interview that previous theories about a bubble were “very convincing in 1999 and early 2000; they were very convincing in 2006–2007.” Each time, he said, the “surge in the market was so relentless” that he just stopped talking about bubbles, “because clients get pissed off with you repeating the same thing over and over again and being wrong,” only to change their tune after the bubble bursts. “Generally, when you’re gripped by a bubble, people just don’t want to listen because they’re making so much money.”As he himself frequently points out, Edwards is known as a very bearish market strategist who has made some high-profile and dramatic predictions, often warning about major stock market crashes and recessions. His track record includes famously calling the dotcom bubble, but it also includes warnings that haven’t panned out, such as predicting a potential 75% drop in the S&P 500 from peaks—worse than the 2008 Financial Crisis lows. When theNew York Timesprofiled Edwards in 2010, it noted that the chuckling, Birkenstocks-wearing analyst had been predicting a Japan-style stagnation for U.S. equity markets since 1997 (a prediction he repeated in his interview withFortune).Still, Edwards insists that the current parallels to the late 1990s Nasdaq bubble are clear: extremely rich valuations in tech, with some U.S. companies trading at over 30x forward earnings, justified by compelling growth narratives. Just as the TMT (technology, media, telecom) sector attracted vast, sometimes wasted capital investment in the 1990s, Edwards argued that today’s enthusiasm echoes that earlier era. There are two key differences that could lead to a much worse outcome this time, though.The missing trigger and the melt-up riskIn previous cycles, Edwards explained, the catalyst for a bubble’s demise was usually the monetary authority’s tightening cycle—the Federal Reserve hiking rates and exposing market froth. This time, with the Fed lowering rates, that trigger is conspicuously absent. Bank of America Research has noted the rarity of central banks cutting rates amid rising inflation, which has occurred just 16% of the time since 1973. Ominously, BofA released a note on the “Ghosts of 2007” in August.Instead of tightening, Edwards anticipates the Fed will move away from quantitative tightening and likely shift to quantitative easing “quite soon” because of issues in the U.S. repo markets, another ghost from the Great Recession. The Fed itself issued a staff report in 2021 on repo issues, writing in 2021 that trading between 2007 and 2009 “highlighted important vulnerabilities of the U.S. repo market.” Repo issues reemerged in the pandemic, with the Richmond Fed noting that interest rates “spiked dramatically higher” starting in 2019.Edwards told Bloomberg that the absence of hawkish policy could lead to a “further melt-up,” making the eventual burst even more damaging. Poking fun at himself, Edwards said, “I just got bored being bearish, basically rattling my chains saying, ‘This is all a bubble; it’s all going to collapse.’” He said that he can see how the bubble can actually keep going for much longer than a perma bear like himself would find logical, “and actually that’s when something just comes out the woodwork and takes the legs from out from under the bubble.”“What’s more worrying about the AI bubble,” Edwards toldFortune, “is how much more dependent the economy is on this theme, not just for the business investments, which is driving growth,” but also the fact that consumption growth is being dominated far more than normal by the top quintile. In other words, the richest Americans who are heavily invested in equities are driving more of the economy than during previous bubbles, accounting for a much larger proportion of consumption. “So the economy, if you like, is more vulnerable than it was in the ’87 crash,” Edwards explained, with a 25% or greater correction in stocks meaning that consumer spending will surely suffer—let alone a 50% lurch.Edwards told Bloomberg he was concerned about the widespread participation of retail investors who have been dragged into the market, encouraged to “just buy the dips.” This belief that “the stock market never goes down” is dangerous, Edwards warned, arguing that a 30% or even a 50% decline is very possible. The inequality of American society and the heavy concentration among high earners whose wealth has been “inflated by the stock market” is a major concern for Edwards, who pointed out that if there is a major stock market correction, then U.S. consumption will be “hit very, very badly indeed,” and the entire economy will suffer. This view is increasingly shared by less über-bearish voices on Wall Street, such as Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Lisa Shalett.In many ways, Edwards toldFortune, we’re overdue for a correction, noting that apart from two months during the pandemic, there hasn’t been a recession since 2008. “That’s a bloody long time, and the business cycle eventually always goes into recession.” He said it’s been so long that his perma-bear instincts are confused. “The fact I’m less worried about an imminent collapse [right now] makes me worried,” Edwards added with a laugh.Edwards toldFortunethat he’s been through various cycles and bubbles and he gained his perma-bear status in the mid-1990s, when he felt a distant earthquake happening in Asia. “You’ve been around the block a few times, you just do become cynical,” he said, before correcting himself: “That’s not the right word. You become extremely skeptical of the full narrative.” He proudly repeats the story about how, when he was at Dresdner Kleinwort in the ’90s, he wrote with skepticism about Malaysia’s economic boom at the time, only to be surprised when Thailand blew up first. Nevertheless, he said, “we lost all our banking licenses [in Malaysia] because of what I wrote,” adding that the story is still proudly pinned to his X.com account.“I had to sort of basically hide under my desk,” Edwards said of the inward reception to the emergence of his inner bear. “Corporate finance banking departments certainly didn’t appreciate losing all their banking licenses. But in retrospect, you know, they avoided a final year of lending to Malaysia before it blew up. They didn’t thank me afterwards.”Fiscal incontinence and cockroachesBeyond equity valuations, Edwards has been highlighting two other major underlying risks that point to systemic vulnerability. First, Edwards emphasized the long-term risk of inflation in the West, driven by “fiscal incontinence.” Despite short-term cyclical deflationary pressure emanating from China—which has seen 12 successive quarters of year-on-year declines in its GDP deflator—Edwards said he believes the path of least resistance for highly indebted Western politicians will be “money printing.” At some point, the mathematics for fiscal sustainability “just do not add up,” forcing central banks to intervene through “yield curve control” or quantitative easing to hold down bond yields.This is where Edwards’ long-held thesis about Japan comes in, what he calls “the Ice Age.” Around 1996, he said, he started thinking that “what’s happening in Japan will come to Europe and the U.S. with a lag.” He explained that the bursting of the Japanese stock bubble led to all kinds of nasty things: real interest rates collapsing, inflation going to zero, bond yields going to zero. Ultimately, it was a period of low growth that Japan still has not been able to break out of. The difference with the U.S., he added, is that Japanification actually started happening in 2000 with the dotcom bubble bursting, but “the relationship broke” between the economy and asset prices as the Fed began “throwing money” at the problem through QE. The U.S. has essentially been in a 25-year bubble since then that is due to burst any day now, he argued—it’s been due any day for a quarter-century.“We’re going to end up with runaway inflation at some point,” Edwards toldFortune, “because, I mean, that’s the end game, right? There’s no appetite to cut back the deficits. We bring back the QE, if and when this bubble bursts, the only solution is more QE, and then we end up with inflation, maybe even worse than 2022.”Edwards also sees a smoking gun in home prices. “You look at the U.S. housing market, you think, ‘Well, actually, is the Fed just too loose relative to everywhere else?’ Because why should other housing bubbles have deflated in terms of house price earnings ratio, but the U.S. is still stuck up there at maximum valuation or close to it?” In a flourish that shows why Edwards is so respected despite his broken-record reputation, he notes that in a Bloomberg Opinion piece from 2018, legendary former Fed Chair Paul Volcker “eviscerated the Fed just before he died.” The central banker who famously slew inflation in the 1980s argued that the modern era’s loose monetary policy was “a grave error of judgment…basically just kicking the can down the road.” Edwards shared an OECD chart withFortuneto show just how much U.S. housing has decoupled from global markets because the Fed has been too loose.The analyst also said he applied his skepticism to private equity, an asset class that he sees having benefited immensely from years of falling bond yields and leverage. Private equity’s advantage has been its tax treatment and the fact that “it doesn’t have to mark itself to market, so it isn’t very volatile.” However, the sector is highly leveraged, and if the global environment shifts to a secular bear market for bonds, he said that would be a “major problem.” Recent high-profile bankruptcies have started to leak into bond markets, prompting concern of “credit cockroaches,” as JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently labeled the issue.Drawing on the metaphor that “you never have just one cockroach,” Edwards warned that these bankruptcies signal deeper issues in a highly leveraged sector that has spread its “tentacles…deeply into the real economy.”Fortunenotes to Edwards that more mainstream, less bearish voices are sounding similar warnings, including Mohamed El-Erian at the Yahoo Finance Invest conference and Jeffrey Gundlach, the “bond king,” who takes a similarly skeptical view of private equity. Edwards agreed that something is in the air. “I would say there are more voices of skepticism. And again, this is one thing which makes me worry. This bubble can go on. If it is a bubble [it] can go on quite a long while. Well, we can kick the can down the road many times. Normally, the skeptics are swept aside.”For investors trapped between the fear of a collapse and the fear of missing a melt-up, Edwards advised investors to take him with a grain of salt but be mindful of potential warning signs. “I say that I predict a recession every year. Don’t listen to me, but these are the things you should be looking out for.” Paraphrasing an infamous quote from former Citi CEO Chuck Prince that summed up the bubble mentality with a metaphor about a dance party, Edwards recommended: “In terms of dancing while the music’s still playing, you have to decide whether to be in front of the band, pogoing, or dancing close to the fire escape, ready to get out first.”Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Big 5 AI ‘hyperscalers’ have quadrupled their use of debt to fund operations, Bank of America says
Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are increasingly funding their operations through debt, according to Bank of America analyst Yuri Seliger. This year, these five “hyperscalers” have issued $121 billion in debt, including $27 billion alone to fund Meta’s new data center in Richland Parish, La., Seliger said in a research note dated Nov. 17. Amazon also issued $15 billion in new debt on Nov. 17.Recommended VideoTo put that $121 billion in perspective, it’s more than four times the average level of debt ($28 billion) issued by these companies annually over the previous five years, per this Bank of America chart:The sudden influx of these investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds into the market has increased their “spread,” Seliger said in the note: the gap between the interest yield on bonds from these companies, compared with a risk-free rate or the market as a whole. The yield on Oracle’s debt has increased by 48 basis points (0.48%) since September, the note said.“Not surprisingly, this deluge of supply has widened hyperscaler spreads materially. From Sep 1st to Nov 14th, spreads are +48bps wider for ORCL, +15bps wider for META, and +10bps wider for GOOGL. That’s 27%-49% wider, significantly underperforming the overall IG index,” he wrote.Seliger told clients he expects to see a further $100 billion in debt offered to the market next year.All five companies generate more than enough cash flow to cover their operations. However, the arrival of debt vehicles to fund AI development has complicated the investment case for tech stocks, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management chief investment officer Lisa Shalett toldFortunerecently. “What was a very simple story is suddenly getting a lot more complex,” she said. Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Novo Nordisk stock trades at 4-year-low on the back of disappointing Alzheimer’s trial
Novo Nordisk’s stock is experiencing a steep drop following major clinical setbacks and intensifying competitive pressure in the weight-loss-drug market.Recommended VideoU.S.-listed shares fell over 5% on Monday to a four-year low, around $45, continuing a downward spiral that has seen the company lose nearly half its value since the beginning of 2025.A leading factor in this decline was the announcement that semaglutide—the core ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster drugs Ozempic and Wegovy—failed to slow cognitive deterioration in two major clinical trials addressing Alzheimer’s disease.Results from the EVOKE and EVOKE+ trials showed no significant advantage over a placebo, erasing hopes that the company could expand its diabetes and obesity franchise into neurodegenerative disorders.“While treatment with semaglutide resulted in improvement of Alzheimer’s disease–related biomarkers in both trials, this did not translate into a delay of disease progression,” the company said.Analyst skepticism had been building, but this definitive trial failure has wiped out near-term prospects for growth from new indications. Investors question whether external acquisitions can make up for underperformance in the company’s pipeline. Novo Nordisk’s decision to spend $2 billion licensing a GLP-1 weight-loss drug from China is seen by analysts as a gamble after recent failures.Weakening momentum of blockbuster drugsNovo Nordisk’s outlook is also clouded by ongoing regulatory and price pressures, especially as governments push for broader insurance coverage and lower costs for obesity treatments.Even before the trial disappointment, Novo Nordisk was facing slowing sales growth for its bestselling Wegovy and Ozempic weight-loss drugs. Lower prescription rates in the U.S. and increased competition from rivals like Eli Lilly—whose rival drug Zepbound is gaining market share—have triggered worries about sustained demand.Novo has been forced to implement dramatic price cuts, first by roughly 50% to $499, and then even further to $349, in efforts to retain its foothold. These discounts directly impact profit margins and indicate troubles maintaining growth.Wall Street is also reacting to significant leadership changes and layoffs, while recent guidance cuts for sales and operating profit growth have added to the negative sentiment. That’s after restructuring costs and impaired asset write-offs have further weighed down earnings.Gross margin dropped significantly, too, with rising costs for sales, distribution, and ongoing capacity expansions putting additional strain on profitability.Fortune’s Vivienne Walt asked in March whether the company could find its next blockbuster drug before the boom ended, and that is still an open question.For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Nvidia drags Wall Street toward its worst day in a month as AI superstars keep weakening
The U.S. stock market is tumbling toward one of its worst days since its springtime sell-off, as Nvidia and other AI superstar stocks keep dropping Thursday on worries their prices shot too high. Wall Street is also questioning whether the coming cuts to interest rates that it’s been banking on will actually happen.Recommended VideoThe S&P 500 sank 1.5% and pulled further from its all-time high set late last month. It’s on track for its worst day in a month and its second-worst since plunging in April after President Donald Trump shocked the world with his announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 565 points, or 1.2%, from its own record set the day before, while the Nasdaq composite was down 2.4%, as of 1:29 p.m. Eastern time.Nvidia was the heaviest weight on the market after the chip company lost 4.7%. Other AI darlings also struggled, including drops of 7.6% for Super Micro Computer, 6.6% for Palantir Technologies and 4.7% for Broadcom.Questions have been rising about how much more superstar AI stocks can add to already spectacular gains. At the start of this month, Palantir was sporting a stunning rise of nearly 174% for the year so far, for example.Such sensational performances have been one of the top reasons the U.S. market has hit records despite a slowing job market and high inflation. AI stock prices have shot so high, though, that they’re also drawing comparisons to the 2000 dot-com bubble which ultimately burst and dragged the S&P 500 down by nearly half.In the meantime, stocks fell across Wall Street as traders worry that the Federal Reserve may not deliver another cut to interest rates in December, as they had been assuming.Wall Street loves cuts to rates because they can goose the economy and prices for investments, even though they can also worsen inflation. A halt in cuts could undercut U.S. stock prices after they already ran to records in part on expectations for a series of more reductions.Expectations have sunk sharply in recent days that the Fed will cut its main interest rate at its next meeting in December. Traders now see less than a coin flip’s chance of it, 47.6%, down from nearly 70% a week ago, according to data from CME Group.Recent comments from Fed officials have helped drive the doubt.Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said late Wednesday that it’s likely appropriate to leave interest rates steady “for some time.” That was a turnaround from her speech last month, when she supported another cut.The Fed’s job became more difficult recently because of the U.S. government’s six-week shutdown, which delayed many important updates on the job market and other signals about the economy’s strength.The stock market mostly rose through the shutdown, as it has often done historically, but Wall Street is bracing for potential swings as the government gets back to releasing those updates. The fear is that the data could persuade the Federal Reserve to halt its cuts to interest rates, which can boost the economy but also worsen inflation. Wall Street hasThe “looming data deluge may spur additional volatility in the coming weeks,” according to Doug Beath, global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.On Wall Street, The Walt Disney Co. helped lead the market lower after falling 7.8%. The entertainment giant reported profit for the latest quarter that topped analysts’ expectations, but its revenue fell short.That helped offset a jump of 4.9% for Cisco Systems after the tech giant delivered profit and revenue that were bigger than analysts estimated.In the bond market, Treasury yields rose, which put downward pressure on prices for stocks and other investments.The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.10% from 4.08% late Wednesday.In stock markets abroad, indexes sagged in Europe following modest gains in Asia.Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index rose 0.4%, even as Japanese tech giant SoftBank Group lost another 3.4%. It’s been struggling since it said earlier this week that it had sold all of its $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia.___AP Writers Teresa Cerojano and Matt Ott contributed.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Top analyst sees U.S. stocks underperforming the rest of the world over the next decade as ‘superstar’ AI stocks make forecast uncertain
Goldman Sachs’ Peter Oppenheimer, one of the investment world’s most-watched strategists, has sent a powerful message to investors: U.S. stocks are set to underperform over the next decade, and virtually every other region should return more. This forecast marks a sharp turn from the dominance American equities have shown in the last generation and is set to reshape global portfolio strategy for years to come.Recommended VideoIn a Global Strategy Paper dated Nov. 12, analysts on Oppenheimer’s team noted current global valuations are high, with the 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the MSCI AC World index sitting around 19x. However, the U.S. market has a particularly high starting P/E of approximately 23x. The baseline forecast for the U.S. assumes a 1% annual decline in valuations over the decade, with downside risk seeing a 3% annual drop.In a cautionary note, the team argued “extreme current U.S. equity market concentration increases the uncertainty around the long-term” forecast. “Extraordinary earnings strength” and elevated valuations among the largest U.S. firms have helped boost the U.S. equity market in recent years, driving earnings growth and multiples, and this may continue, Goldman wrote, meaning the forecast could surprise to the upside, as equity returns have surpassed forecasts during the past decade.“In contrast, if the profitability and/or valuations of the largest companies falter, unless another cohort of ‘superstars’ emerges, returns for the broad market will likely be hampered as today’s largest stocks fall back to earth,” according to the note.The word “bubble” only appears once in the report from Oppenheimer, Goldman’s chief equity strategist, and not to refer to the current U.S. stock market. This happens when Goldman notes current valuations only have two historical parallels: during the dot-com bubble and briefly in 2021, with the latter occurring too recently to be useful as a precedent. “While elevated valuations in the late 1990s preceded very poor 10-year returns, there are many differences between the market then and today,” Oppenheimer argues, including lower current interest rates.Goldman Sachs Research’s Eric Sheridan and Kash Rangan tackled the bubble topic head-on in a recent “Head-On Report” and a recent episode of theGoldman Sachs Exchangespodcast. They said they saw some reasons for concern, but generally agreed the U.S. tech sector isn’t in bubble territory. Tech analyst Sheridan notes most Magnificent 7 tech stocks are showing signs of having real money: generating outsized free cash flows, engaging in stock buybacks, and paying dividends.“There are signs that rhyme with past periods of time, but I wouldn’t necessarily align it perfectly with some of the lessons we’ve learned in prior periods—at least not yet,” Sheridan said on an episode ofGoldman Sachs Exchanges, based on the latest Top of Mind Report. Software analyst Rangan said there are few signs of a bubble in his coverage universe. If anything, many of the valuations here are already underperforming the rest of the market.Why U.S. stocks could face a decade of headwindsOppenheimer’s team at Goldman Sachs projects U.S. equities will deliver an average annual return of just 6.5% over the coming 10 years—ranking at the 27th percentile relative to history since 1900 and well beneath the historical median of 9.3%. The main underlying factors are lofty starting valuations and the extraordinary concentration of market capital in a handful of mega-cap technology stocks, which have pushed current price-to-earnings ratios near records.Goldman’s forecast model notes “earnings remain the primary engine of performance,” with estimated annualized earnings per share growth of 6% making up the bulk of investors’ gains. But this is expected to be offset by valuation “drag” at about 1% annually, as market multiples normalize from their current highs. Dividend yields, historically a steady contributor, add another 1.4% to total return.Oppenheimer warns elevated valuations in the U.S. “argue for diversification,” contrasting the outsized profit margins and index domination of technology giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet with much broader opportunities elsewhere. He points out: “Above-average valuations have historically signaled below-average returns, and we expect the same outcome will prove true during the next decade.”The rest of the world: a brighter outlookOutside the U.S., Goldman Sachs paints a markedly more optimistic picture. European stocks are forecast to return 7.1% per year in local currency (7.5% in USD terms as the dollar weakens), driven by a balanced mix of earnings growth and shareholder distributions like dividends and buybacks.Japan—long dogged by fears of stagnation—is expected to outperform, with projected annual returns hitting 8.2%, thanks to a combination of earnings growth, policy-led improvements, and a rising dividend culture. Oppenheimer’s report singles out Asia ex-Japan as the strongest regional performer, forecasting a robust 10.3% annual return, powered by 9% earnings growth and a 2.7% dividend yield. Emerging markets, helped especially by surging corporate earnings in China and India, could deliver nearly 11% in local currency, with currency gains likely to add further upside.Why the shift? Macroeconomic and structural driversSeveral structural forces underpin this regional divergence. The U.S. faces the dual challenge of historically high valuations and a concentrated market. Elsewhere, earnings growth is expected to benefit from higher nominal GDP growth, demographic tailwinds, corporate governance reforms, and improving shareholder returns through both dividends and buybacks.Currency dynamics play a key role: Goldman Sachs’ strategists expect the dollar to decline, which should lift USD-translated returns and favor non-U.S. equities. Historically, periods of dollar weakness have led to outperformance by international stocks—a trend Oppenheimer expects will repeat in the near future. Artificial intelligence, another wild card, is expected to provide long-term benefits that are “broad-based rather than confined to U.S. technology,” further supporting the argument for global diversification. Oppenheimer’s message is clear: The era of U.S. equity market supremacy may be drawing to a close, at least for the next decade.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
What bubble? Asset managers in risk-on mode stick with stocks
There’s a time when investments run their course and the prudent move is to cash out. For global asset managers who’ve ridden double-digit gains in equities for three straight years, that time is not now.Recommended Video“Our expectation of solid growth and easier monetary and fiscal policies supports a risk-on tilt in our multi-asset portfolios. We remain overweight stocks and credit,” said Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.“We are playing the powerful trends in place and are bullish through the end of next year,” said David Bianco, Americas chief investment officer at DWS. “For now we are not contrarians.”“Start the year with sufficient exposure, even over-exposure to equities, predominantly in emerging market equities,” said Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe, EMEA chief investment officer at Lombard Odier. “We don’t expect a recession in 2026 to unfold.”Those assessments came from Bloomberg News interviews with 39 investment managers across the US, Asia and Europe, including at BlackRock Inc., Allianz Global Investors, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Franklin Templeton.More than three-quarters of the allocators were positioning portfolios for a risk-on environment through 2026. The thrust of the bet is that resilient global growth, further developments in artificial intelligence, accommodative monetary policy and fiscal stimulus will deliver outsize returns in all fashion of global equity markets. The call is not without risks, including simply its pervasiveness among the respondents, along with their overall high degree of assuredness. The view among the institutional investors also aligns with that of sell-side strategists around the globe. Should the bullishness play out as expected, it would deliver a stunning fourth straight year of bumper returns for the MSCI All-Country World Index. That would extend a run that’s added $42 trillion in market capitalization since the end of 2022 — the most value created for equity investors in history. That’s not to say the optimism is without merit. The artificial intelligence trade has added trillions in market value to dozens of firms plying the industry, but just three years after ChatGPT broke into the public consciousness, AI remains in the early phase of development.No Tech PanicThe buy-side managers largely rejected the idea that the technology has blown a bubble in equity markets. While many acknowledged some pockets of froth in unprofitable tech names, 85% of managers said valuations among the Magnificent Seven and other AI heavyweights are not overly inflated. Fundamentals back the trade, they said, which marks the beginning of a new industrial cycle. “You can’t call it a bubble when you’re seeing tech companies deliver a massive earnings beat. In fact, earnings from the sector have outstripped all other US stocks,” said Anwiti Bahuguna, global co-chief investment officer at Northern Trust Asset Management.As such, investors expect the US to remain the engine of the rally. “American exceptionalism is far from dead,” said Jose Rasco, chief investment officer at HSBC Americas. “As artificial intelligence continues to spread around the globe, the US will be a key participant.” Most investors echoed the sentiment expressed by Helen Jewell, international chief investment officer of fundamental equities at BlackRock, who suggested also searching outside the US for meaningful upside.“The US is where the high-return high-growth companies are, so we have to be realistic about that. But those are already reflected in valuations, and there are probably more interesting opportunities outside the US,” she said.International BoomProfits matter above all else for equity investors, and huge bumps in government spending from Europe to Asia have stoked estimates for strong gains in earnings.“We have begun to see a meaningful broadening of earnings momentum, both across market capitalizations and across regions, including Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea,” said Wellington Management equity strategist Andrew Heiskell. “Looking into 2026, we see clear potential for a revival of earnings growth in Europe and a wider range of emerging markets.”India is one of the most compelling opportunities for 2026, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global co-head and co-chief investment officer of multi-asset solutions.“We see real potential for India to become the Korea-like re-rating story of 2026, a market that transitions from tactical allocation to strategic core exposure in global portfolios,” she said. Nelson Yu, head of equities at AllianceBernstein, said he sees improvements outside of the US that will mandate allocations. He noted governance reform in Japan, capital discipline in Europe and recovering profitability in some emerging markets.Small Cap OptimismAt the sector level, the investors are looking for AI proxies, notably among clean energy providers that can help meet the technology’s ravenous demand for power. Smaller stocks are also finding favor.“The earnings outlook has brightened for small-capitalization stocks, industrials and financials,” said Stephen Dover, chief market strategist and head of Franklin Templeton Institute. “Small-cap stocks and industrials, which are typically more highly leveraged than the rest of the market, will see profitability rise as the Federal Reserve trims interest rates and debt servicing costs fall.”Over at Santander Asset Management, Francisco Simón sees earnings growth of more than 20% for US small caps after years of underperformance. Reflecting the optimism, the Russell 2000 Index of such equities recently hit a record high.Meanwhile, the combination of low valuations and strong fundamentals makes health care one of the most compelling contrarian opportunities in a bullish cycle, a preponderance of managers said. “Health-care related sectors can surprise to the upside in the US markets,” said Jim Caron, chief investment officer of cross-asset solutions at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “This is a mid-term election year and policy may at the margin support many companies. Valuations are still attractive and have a lot of catch up to do.”Virtually every allocator struck at least a note of caution about what lies ahead. The top worry among them was a rekindling of inflation in the US. If the Fed is forced by rising prices to abruptly pause or even end its easing cycle, the potential for turbulence is high.“A scenario — which is not our base case — whereby US inflation rebounds in 2026 would constitute a double whammy for multi-asset funds as it would penalize both stocks and bonds. In this sense it would be much worse than an economic slowdown,” said Amélie Derambure, senior multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi SA. “The way investors are headed for 2026, they need to have the Fed on their side,” she added.Trade CautionAnother worry is around President Donald Trump’s capriciousness, particularly when it comes to trade. Any flareup in his trade spats that fuels inflation through heightened tariffs would weigh on risk assets. Oil and gas producers remain unloved by the group, though that could change if a major geopolitical event upends supply lines. While such an outcome would bolster those sectors, the overall impact would likely be negative for risk assets, they said.“Any geopolitical situation that can affect the price of oil is what will have the largest impact on the financial markets. Clearly both the Middle East and the Ukraine/Russia situations can impact oil prices,” said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.Multiple respondents flagged European autos as a “no-go” area for 2026, citing intense competitive pressure from Chinese carmakers, margin compression and structural challenges in the transition to electric vehicles. “Personally I don’t believe for a minute that there will be a rebound in the sector,” said Isabelle de Gavoty at Allianz GI. Outside of those worries, most asset managers simply believe that there’s little reason to fret about the upward momentum being interrupted — outside, of course, from the contrarian signal such near-uniform bullishness sends.“Everyone seems to be risk-on at the moment, and that worries me a bit in the sense that the concentration of positions creates less tolerance for adverse surprises,” said Amundi’s Derambure. Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Fannie, Freddie shares mimic meme-stock mania with wild swings
Bill Ackman lit the fire and Bill Pulte supercharged it.Recommended VideoTheir influence helped drive retail traders to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose shares have soared more than 500% since Donald Trump’s election a year ago. But now, as equity markets are gripped by volatility and crypto assets suffer their worst rout in years, those same investors are fleeing.Thursday’s wild selloffs, and further losses Friday, were a reminder that the fervor of retail traders — whipped up in part by Federal Housing Finance Agency head Pulte — can quickly turn sour. Ackman, a billionaire hedge fund manager, sent out a social media post this week blaming forced liquidations and margin calls in the cryptocurrency market for the sagging prices on the mortgage giants.“I underestimated how much exposure Fannie and Freddie (‘F2’) have to crypto, not on balance sheet, but in their shareholder bases,” Ackman said on X.Ackman’s theory for the pullback — that leveraged cryptocurrency investors facing margin calls had to sell other assets to raise cash — was echoed by some on Wall Street who saw the stocks drop by more than 10% on Thursday. It happened as Bitcoin was on track for its worst monthly performance since a string of corporate collapses rocked the sector in 2022. Read: Ackman Fannie-Freddie Plan Boosts Shares After White House Pitch“There was clearly a lot more leverage to take out in crypto and the recent high-flyer equities themes,” Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset strategist at Nomura, wrote in a note to clients Friday.Shares of the pair are up six-fold since just before Trump’s election on bets Pulte will help oversee a process to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after almost two decades of government control. The Trump administration has said it’s a priority, though has been mum on specifics and timing.Pulte has frequently promoted the idea, with stock traders studying his social media posts for clues about what’s likely coming next.It all has echoes of the first meme-stock phenomenon that emerged during the pandemic, when bored young people stuck at home and flush with stimulus checks started speculating in the stock market, driving wild runs in shares of GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. among others.Read more: Pulte’s Social Media Posts Become Must-Follow for Stock TradersFannie and Freddie have been on a similarly tumultuous ride over the past year, including a drop of almost 40% since a Sept. 11 peak when Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick talked up the prospect of taking them public. The volatility is also driven in part by the fact that the stocks have traded over the counter since they were delisted from the New York Stock Exchange in 2010, limiting the potential investor pool and stock liquidity.Chunky swings are commonplace for both Freddie and Fannie. For the stocks to experience a two-standard deviation move — something that occurs only 5% of the time — they need to jump or fall by at least 10%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. By comparison, such a move would register at just over 2% for McDonald’s Corp. and at roughly 3% for Microsoft Corp.Ackman, the founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, has long promoted buying Fannie Mae and rival Freddie Mac, saying the stocks are cheap and will rally when the US government unwinds its massive stakes. While Ackman has been a proponent of taking the pair of companies public in recent months and weeks, he said Tuesday that it will take “significant time” for the government to “deliberately execute.”Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
A 2001 Meltdown Would Drop Nasdaq 19,000 Points
On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq-100 traded at 5,048.62. On October 9, 2002, it had dropped to 1,114, down 78% from its peak. If a decline occurs anywhere near that level, it will be due to several factors combined. The most likely outcome is a huge disappointment in the future of artificial intelligence (AI). Another would be raging inflation caused by tariffs. (This leaves a major war out of the equation.) A drop of the same magnitude would take the Nasdaq down over 19,000 points.-->-->24/7 Wall St. Key Points:Overvaluation of startup tech companies appears to have come around again.A meltdown like the one in 2001 would take the Nasdaq down over 19,000 points this time.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)-->-->Most of the drop in the market from 2000 to 2002 was due to major overvaluation of stocks, which were part of the new internet wave. Those that dragged the market down for the most part had almost no revenue. They often raised money by going public. They ran out of money. A falling market made it impossible for most to raise any more money. Investors in those stocks were wiped out.The panic was so severe that it even dragged down stocks with excellent business prospects, which are among the most valuable tech stocks today. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares fell as much as 90%. Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) was a more well-established company. Its stock fell nearly 60%. Good earnings at strong tech companies did not save their investors.Can It Happen Again?The valuation of some of the hardest hit companies in 2000 to 2002 bears a resemblance to the valuation of AI-related companies today. OpenAI was valued at $29 billion as of May 2023. It is worth $500 billion today. Anthropic was worth $18 billion in early 2024. Its recent valuation was $183 billion. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) traded for $21 in March 2023. Today, it trades at $188 per share.There are theories about AI valuations that are not in its favor. Among them is the fact that advances in technology will start to slow down. Another concern is that a shortage of electricity for AI data centers will hinder its growth. The most likely scenario is that AI products, which are mostly given away for free today, eventually become something that people will pay for. Revenue forecasts could be entirely wrong. Alternatively, AI could become so effective that it puts millions of Americans out of work.Leaving aside direct stock valuation, people often overlook the fact that other factors also hurt the economy during this period. Japan went into recession, and some economists feared that it would spread. The Federal Reserve raised rates several times starting in 2002 due to concerns about inflation. Today, following President Trump’s aggressive moves, it is more likely that rates will fall, unless inflation arises.Tariffs will be the inflation trigger. It depends on their levels, duration, the countries involved, and the goods and services they affect. It also has to do with retaliation. The largest risk today is likely from China, Canada, and Mexico, America’s three largest trading partners. U.S. negotiations with China have made no significant progress. However, the central government in China can prop up its economy during a trade war in a way the United States cannot. Canada’s retaliation could center around timber and autos. Mexico’s might center on cars and agriculture.Most investors believe there is no chance for a market reset. What they forget is that it has happened in the past.Is a Big-Time Fall Sell-Off Coming? Play Defense With These 7 Proven MovesIf You have $500,000 Saved, Retirement Could Be Closer Than You Think (sponsor)Retirement can be daunting, but it doesn’t need to be.Imagine having an expert in your corner to help you with your financial goals. Someone to help you determine if you’re ahead, behind, or right on track. With SmartAsset, that’s not just a dream—it’s reality. This free tool connects you with pre-screened financial advisors who work in your best interests. It’s quick, it’s easy, so take the leap today and start planning smarter!Don’t waste another minute; get started right here and help your retirement dreams become a retirement reality.(sponsor)
Crypto’s brutal month triggers a stress test for Wall Street
Reversals of fortune are nothing new for Bitcoin diehards — euphoric rallies, then brutal selloffs. They happen every few years, or whenever sentiment snaps.Recommended VideoNone of those previous episodes, though, have prepared traders for the speed and scale of the past few weeks, in a reversal that was sharper than expected even if it lacked the systemic stress of prior crashes.Friday’s drop sent Bitcoin to a low near $80,500, putting it on track for its worst month since Terra’s $60 billion collapse in 2022 set off the bankruptcies that ended in FTX. Altogether, some half a trillion dollars in Bitcoin value has been wiped out. And that’s before tallying the carnage across the altcoin complex. Bitcoin is still comfortably up since President Donald Trump’s November victory, but much of the heady run has vanished in his first year back in office, the very stretch he hailed as crypto’s golden age. Most of the losses remain on paper. But for the first time since exchange-traded funds helped bring Wall Street and retail into the market, those positions are under pressure.The spark this time around is harder to spot. These new ETFs didn’t exist during the last big crypto crash. Investors have pulled billions from the 12 Bitcoin-linked funds this month, Bloomberg data show, with past buyers including Harvard’s endowment and several hedge funds.The slew of digital-asset treasury companies — publicly traded crypto holding vehicles, inspired by Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. — have seen even steeper outflows as investors question the value of corporate shells built solely to hold tokens.What’s clear is that crypto has become much bigger than the retail traders and techno futurists who are committed to HODLing through thick and thin. Now it has become woven into the fabric of Wall Street and the broader public markets, bringing a whole new set of finicky players to the table. “What’s happened these last two months was like rocket fuel, as if people were expecting this to crash,” said Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at Copper Technologies Ltd. “That’s what institutional investors do. They’re not there to hold, they don’t have that mentality. They rebalance their portfolio.”Bitcoin remains up roughly 50% from its pre-election low. And the scale of this pullback still pales next to its 75% collapse during the 2021–2022 bear market. That hints at how much deeper the pain could still go. Back then, each leg down exposed another major player — from Celsius to BlockFi to Three Arrows.Flash Crash But with no obvious blowups or scandals this time, some traders think the current drop is more about technicals and confidence than systemic cracks.“We aren’t following the same path down; overall macro conditions, government support, and fewer bad actors in the space make today’s market more resilient,” said Luke Youngblood, founder of lending platform Moonwell. “The foundations crypto is building on are stronger, even if there are causes for concern down the line.”The clearest catalyst was a flash crash on Oct. 10 in which $19 billion of crypto bets were liquidated in a matter of hours. The event exposed the chronic lack of liquidity during weekend trading — the flipside to crypto’s famed 24-7 trading schedule — as well as a build-up of excessive leverage on certain exchanges, knocking Bitcoin from the all-time high of $126,251 that it had reached just days earlier. “To some extent, we believe a lot of the decline in crypto markets is due to what happened on 10/10,” Brett Knoblauch and Gareth Gacetta, analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., wrote in a Thursday note. “It feels as if some big players in the space are being forced to sell, as what happened on 10/10 might have had a far-larger impact on balance sheets than initially thought.”The problem hasn’t quite died out yet either. Liquidity in crypto markets remains low, with market makers weakened by the crash unable to step in and support prices. Around $1.6 billion in bets were liquidated across exchanges on Friday, according to Coinglass data, as the latest drop hit leveraged traders.Bitcoin’s gold-like mystique — always a big stretch — has faded. Gold has held its ground. Crypto remains a proxy for fast-twitch risk appetite — and it’s reacting faster than the market around it.This week, Bitcoin got caught up in topsy-turvy trading in technology stocks, with the token’s volatility being pointed to as both the cause and effect of equities turmoil. On Thursday, for example, the S&P 500 rose early in the day, bolstered by strong earnings from Nvidia Corp., before suffering its biggest intraday reversal since the April tariff turmoil. Analysts at Nomura blamed crypto, among other causes. Bill Ackman floated an unusual link — suggesting Fannie and Freddie holdings were behaving like a crypto proxy.Crypto’s fate is now tied to AI-fueled market optimism. With bubble chatter building, it won’t take much to spook investors into selling. There are also plenty of dangers lurking within the crypto ecosystem. The Saylor copycats have been built on the belief that a public company that does nothing but hold crypto can be worth more than the value of the tokens it holds. The push to repurpose public firms into crypto treasuries has endured to this point in the downturn — echoing the overleveraged lenders of 2022. If confidence cracks, forced selling could follow. Many are already underwater on their token holdings.“When you’ve got a medical device company or a cancer research firm rebranding as a crypto treasury, it’s a sign of where you are in the cycle,” said Adam Morgan McCarthy, senior research analyst at blockchain data firm Kaiko. Overall, any positive vibes left in the industry appear to be hurtling toward rock bottom. The Fear and Greed index — a tool that measures sentiment in crypto markets — sat at a score of 11 out of 100 on Friday, according to CoinMarketCap. That’s deep in “extreme fear” territory. “Fear sentiment has spiked to relative highs while structural demand for spot remains notably absent, leaving the market without the natural buyers typically present during significant corrections,” said Chris Newhouse, director of research at Ergonia, a firm specializing in decentralized finance.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
CoreWeave’s earnings report highlights $56 billion in contracted revenue, but its guidance and share price tick down amid AI infrastructure bubble fears
CoreWeave needed a lot of things to go right on Monday as it released third-quarter financial results, and one of the most critical was showing that its contracted future revenues could hit a $50 billion target Wall Street had set as a benchmark for the AI data-center and infrastructure operator. Recommended VideoIn its announcement, CoreWeave confirmed it nearly doubled its revenue backlog,which includes “remaining performance obligations” (RPOs) and other amounts it estimates will be recognized as revenue, to $55.6 billion, up from $30 billion the previous quarter. The surging backlog, which represents future revenues from customers, was driven by contracts with Meta, OpenAI, and French AI startup Poolside. Earnings and revenue, meanwhile, both beat analysts’ consensus estimates.The company also reported an increase in the debt on its balance sheet, however, and it revised its full-year revenue guidance downward. Following its earnings release and call with analysts, the stock dropped 6% in after-hours trading.Someinvestors have trained a gimlet eye on CoreWeave as more skeptics kick the tires of the booming AI trade and the concurrent infrastructure buildout. Concerns about CoreWeave, which some see as a potential canary-like indicator of weakness in the AI ramp-up, and about the AI build-out in general have sent the stock on a journey that has seen it tumble more than 30% from mid-August highs.The downward revision in revenue guidance reflected delays in construction of some of CoreWeave’s data centers. “While we are experiencing relentless demand for our platform, data center developers across the industry are also enduring unprecedented pressure across supply chains,” CEO Michael Intrator said during the analysts’ call. “In our case, we are affected by temporary delays related to a third-party data-center developer who is behind schedule.”Chief financial officer Nitin Agrawal offered full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $5.05 billion to $5.15 billion, down slightly from the guidance Intrator offered on the second-quarter earnings call, of between $5.15 billion to $5.35 billion. The customer impacted by the delay agreed to adjust the delivery schedule and extend the expiration date, Intrator said, which means CoreWeave will maintain the total value of the original contract.Agrawal saidthe company’s 2025 capex spending would be between $12 billion to $14 billion, down significantly from the $20 billion to $23 billion Intrator forecastlast quarter. However, Agrawal said CoreWeave expects 2026 capex to soar.“Given the significant growth in our backlog and continued insatiable demand for our cloud services, we expect capex in 2026 to be well in excess of double that of 2025,” Agrawal said.Revenue leaps, losses narrow, debt increasesCoreWeave reported revenues of $1.4 billion for the quarter, up from $584 million in the same quarter last year and beat analysts’ estimates. Profitability, at least by traditional GAAP measures,remains elusive. CoreWeave reported a net loss of $110 million, although it was an improvement over its $359.8 million loss in the third quarter last year and also better than analysts expected.Adjusted net loss, which shows financial performance without extraordinary items, was $41 million for the quarter compared to the same quarter last year when it was break-even, Agrawal said. Adjusted EBITDA, which shows earnings without certain one-time expenses, were $838 million in the third quarter, compared to $379 million in Q3 2024. Operating income, a metric that shows profit from core businesses, fell to $51.9 million, compared to the same quarter last year when it was $117.1 million. Operating margins shrunk to 4% from 20%. Meanwhile, adjusted operating income, which shows a different view on core business performance, was $217 million for the third quarter, compared to $125 million in the third quarter of 2024, said Agrawal, the CFO. CoreWeave’s third quarter adjusted operating margin was 16%, due to higher revenues, lower costs, and the timing of data center deliveries from third parties. While Monday was just this side of positive for CoreWeave, analysts who are bearish on the AI cloud computing company remain leery of its finances. They see the company as at risk of being overwhelmed by the significant financial commitments it has taken on to build out data centers,which currently look disproportionately large compared to its revenues and cash flow. Based on its latest earnings release, CoreWeave has$9.7 billion in bills due within the next 12 months on its balance sheet, and a total of$14 billion in current and longer-termdebt. Last quarter, those figures were $7.6 billion and $11 billion, respectively. CoreWeave also has $34 billion in scheduled lease payments on contracts that will commence between now and 2028. Interest expense reached $311 million for the quarter, nearly triple the figure from the year-earlier period, of $104 million. CoreWeave bulls, meanwhile, remain confident that revenues from the company’s book of contracts will eventually far outstrip its debt obligations. During the past three months, CoreWeave has announced a spate of significant deals, booking a $14.2 billion deal to provide Meta with computing capacity and an agreement with Poolside for a data center with 40,000 of Nvidia’s coveted GPUs.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Wild ride on Wall Street as the crypto crash spooks risk complex
Wall Street’s risk machine didn’t break this week — Friday’s rebound spared it. But it flinched. And in doing so, it revealed how fragile the current market cycle has become.Recommended VideoThe shift was subtle, then sudden. For weeks, the riskiest trades in finance — crypto, AI stocks, meme names, high-octane momentum bets — had been slipping. On Thursday, that slow-motion retreat snapped. The Nasdaq 100 sank nearly 5% from its intraday peak, its sharpest reversal since April. Nvidia Corp. at one point shed nearly $400 billion despite beating earnings expectations. Bitcoin hit a seven-month low. Momentum names dropped in near-perfect sync.It was a vivid reminder of how easily pressure can cascade through crowded trades, and how markets powered by momentum and retail enthusiasm can buckle without warning.There was no obvious trigger. No policy shift. No data surprise. No earnings miss. Just a sudden wave of selling, and an equally abrupt recovery. What rattled investors wasn’t just the scale of the moves, but their speed, and what that speed suggested: a momentum-driven market, prone to synchronized swings and fragile under strain.“There are real cracks,” said Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer at Manulife Investment Management, which oversees $160 billion. “When you have valuations at these levels and many assets priced for near perfection, any cracks and headline risks cause outsized reactions.”Thooft began paring back equity exposure two weeks ago, reducing exposure to equity risk in tactical portfolios from overweight to neutral as volatility picked up. He now sees a market that’s splintering, not with a single story, but with “plenty to cheer about for the optimists and plenty of worries for the pessimists.”The numbers are hard to ignore. Bitcoin is down more than 20% in November, its worst month since the 2022 crypto crash. Nvidia is heading for its steepest monthly decline since March. A Goldman Sachs index of retail-favored stocks has fallen 17% from its October high. Volatility has surged. Demand for crash protection has returned.But the most visible tremors, and perhaps the most amplified, are playing out in crypto. The selloff in Bitcoin has mirrored the fall in high-beta stocks, strengthening the case that crypto is now moving in lockstep with broader risk assets.The short-term correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 hit a record earlier this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Even the S&P 500 showed unusual synchronicity with digital assets.“There is perhaps an investor base — the more speculative and more levered segment of retail investors — that is common to both crypto and equity markets,” wrote JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noting that blockchain innovation underpins a growing bridge between the two spheres.data-srcyloadEd Yardeni tied part of Thursday’s equity drop to Bitcoin’s plunge, calling the connection too tight to dismiss. And billionaire investor Bill Ackman offered his own comparison — claiming that his stake in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac effectively acts as a kind of crypto proxy.That dynamic — in which digital tokens rise and fall alongside speculative equities — tends to fade in quiet markets, only to return in moments of stress. “Like the Rockettes, they all dance in lockstep,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. “Bitcoin is a representative of the risk-on, risk-off sentiment on steroids.”While some claim crypto is leading the downturn, the case is thin. Institutional exposure is limited, and the asset’s price action tends to be more sentiment-prone than fundamental. Rather than setting the tone, crypto may simply register market stress in its most visible — and visceral — form: a highly leveraged, retail-heavy barometer where speculative nerves show first.Other explanations for febrile stock trading are technical: volatility-linked funds shifting exposure, algorithmic flows tipping thresholds, options positioning unwinding. But all point to the same conclusion: in a crowded market, even small tremors can cascade.Thursday’s sharp reversal only magnified that anxiety. The so-called fear gauge, the VIX, spiked to its highest level since April’s “Liberation Day” selloff. Traders rushed to buy crash protection. Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer at Westwood, was among those who had already begun repositioning in recent weeks, adding tail-risk hedges in anticipation of a regime shift. The crypto slump reinforces the broader retreat from risk assets, he said.“Investors are viewing it less as a safe haven and more as a speculative holding to shed as market fear rises, leading to deleveraging and rapid ‘despeculation’ across high-risk segments,” Helfert said. “This is reinforcing the move away from risk assets.”data-srcyloadEven Nvidia’s blowout earnings couldn’t hold the line. Despite topping expectations, the AI heavyweight fell sharply during the week, underscoring the broader pressure on tech valuations. The Nasdaq 100 notched its third straight weekly loss, shedding about 3%. Retail flows into single-name stocks also flipped negative for the week, according to JPMorgan estimates. And though the market bounced Friday — following dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams — the rebound did little to erase the deeper sense of unease.All of it points to a retreat from the frothiest parts of the market, where AI exuberance, speculative positioning, and cheap leverage have powered much of this year’s gains — and where conviction is now harder to find. And until recently, crash protection was difficult to justify. Risk assets had rallied hard since May, and those betting against the boom had repeatedly been burned. But now, even long-time bulls are looking over their shoulders.“A lot of folks who have done well are right now discussing 2026 risk budgets, and obviously AI concerns are top of mind,” said Amy Wu Silverman, head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “A number of investors I have spoken with have wanted to hedge for a while. We jokingly call them the ‘fully invested bears.’”Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Constellation Holds Margin Lead as Vistra Expands With Gas Plants and Buybacks
Constellation Energy(NASDAQ: CEG) andVistra Energy(NYSE: VST) reported Q3 earnings this month, exposing two fundamentally different approaches to power generation. Constellation doubled down on premium nuclear assets and clean energy positioning. Vistra leaned into growth through fossil fuel acquisitions and aggressive capital returns.nextstayCCSettingsOffArabicChineseEnglishFrenchGermanHindiPortugueseSpanishFont ColorwhiteFont Opacity100%Font Size100%Font FamilyArialText ShadownoneBackground ColorblackBackground Opacity50%Window ColorblackWindow Opacity0%WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%200%175%150%125%100%75%50%ArialGeorgiaGaramondCourier NewTahomaTimes New RomanTrebuchet MSVerdanaNoneRaisedDepressedUniformDrop ShadowWhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%0%WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%0%Clean Premium vs. Diversified Growth MachineConstellation missed Q3 revenue estimates at $6.57B versus $6.63B expected, but fundamentals tell a steadier story. Nuclear production climbed to 46,477 gigawatt-hours from 45,510 in the prior year quarter, and renewable capture rate improved to 96.8%. The company operates nearly 90% carbon-free generation, positioning itself as infrastructure backbone for data centers and AI workloads demanding reliable, emissions-free power. CEO Joe Dominguez emphasized that “momentum continues to build around reliable, clean nuclear energy as a cornerstone of America’s energy strategy.”Vistra missed revenue more dramatically at $4.97B against a $6.16B estimate. Net income dropped 66.7% year-over-year to $652M, hurt by lower unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivatives and the Martin Lake Unit 1 outage. But Vistra is playing a different game. The company completed acquisition of seven natural gas plants during the quarter, started building two new gas units in West Texas, and secured a 20-year power purchase agreement for its Comanche Peak nuclear facility. CEO Jim Burke described the quarter as “marked by disciplined growth and a focus on meeting customer needs across key markets.”Business DriverConstellationVistraCore Asset FocusNuclear and renewables (90% carbon-free)Diversified gas, nuclear, coal, solar, storageQ3 StrategyOperational excellence, premium positioningM&A expansion, new buildsProfit Margin11%6.7%Market Cap$112.41B$56.64BCapital Allocation Shows the Real DivideConstellation carries a 0.41% dividend yield and trades at 41.17 times trailing earnings, reflecting its status as a quality asset with predictable cash flows. The company narrowed full-year 2025 adjusted operating earnings guidance to $9.05 to $9.45 per share.Vistra authorized an additional $1B in share repurchases through 2027 and trades at a 60.13 trailing P/E but just 17.92 times forward earnings. That compression suggests the market expects significant earnings acceleration. The company initiated 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B to $7.6B, well above 2025’s $5.7B to $5.9B range. Institutional ownership sits at 92.7%, higher than Constellation’s 85%, indicating professional money managers favor the growth trajectory over the premium stability play.Which Model Holds Up When Power Demand SurgesBoth companies benefit from rising electricity demand driven by data centers and AI infrastructure buildout. Constellation captures that demand through existing nuclear capacity that can’t be easily replicated. Vistra captures it by building new gas plants and acquiring distressed assets at attractive multiples.Valuation and Growth Trajectory ComparisonThe two companies trade at significantly different valuation multiples. Constellation trades at 32.15 times forward earnings, reflecting its premium positioning and stable nuclear asset base. Vistra trades at 17.92 times forward earnings despite management guidance for significant EBITDA growth from $5.7B-$5.9B in 2025 to $6.8B-$7.6B in 2026. The valuation gap reflects different risk profiles: Constellation offers operational stability with 90% carbon-free generation, while Vistra pursues growth through acquisitions and new capacity additions. Institutional ownership stands at 92.7% for Vistra versus 85% for Constellation, indicating professional investors have positioned for both strategies.Constellation Energy CorpNASDAQ:CEG$359.82▲ $73.25(20.36%)6MPre-Market1D5D1M3M6M1Y5YMAXKEY DATA POINTS−Previous Close$368.62Market Cap112.41BDay's Range$357.12 - $370.0752wk Range$160.75 - $412.23Volume2.02MP/E Ratio41.17Gross Margin11.00%Dividend Yield0.41%ExchangeNASDAQGuaranteed Income With As Little as $1,000Most Americans don’t know where to turn for guaranteed income today. 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Sinking Nvidia keeps Wall Street’s gains in check
Most of Wall Street is rising on Tuesday, but another return toward Earth for Nvidia is keeping the U.S. stock market in check.Recommended VideoThe S&P 500 edged just 0.2% higher, despite gains for the majority of stocks within the index. It’s a slowdown for the market, coming off Monday’s vigorous rebound following its first losing week in four.The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 483 points, or 1%, as of 2:01 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.2% lower. All three are still near their all-time highs but have been shaky recently.Much of the focus was on Nvidia and other winners of the artificial-intelligence frenzy, as usual. Their sensational growth has been one of the top reasons the U.S. stock market has hit records despite a slowing job market and still-high inflation. But their prices have shot so high that critics say they look too expensive and are reminiscent of the 2000 dot-com bubble that ultimately burst and nearly halved the S&P 500.Nvidia sank 2.4% after SoftBank, a Japanese technology giant that had been a major investor, said it had sold its entire stake last month for $5.83 billion. SoftBank is not giving up on AI. It’s still focusing on OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT.Because Nvidia is so large, worth close to $5 trillion, it was the heaviest weight on the S&P 500 Tuesday and checked gains made elsewhere in the market.Nvidia oftentimes can dictate the movement of index funds that track the S&P 500, which sit at the heart of many 401(k) accounts. A day earlier, Nvidia’s rally of nearly 6% was the biggest reason the S&P 500 erased nearly all its loss from last week.CoreWeave, whose cloud platform helps customers running AI workloads, fell 14.8% Tuesday even though it reported a smaller loss for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Its revenue also topped expectations, and financial analysts praised its momentum. But investors seemed to focus instead on supply-chain issues delaying a data center and pushing some of CoreWeave’s revenue further into the future.On the winning side of Wall Street, BigBear.ai jumped 10.9% after reporting better results for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It also said it would buy AskSage, a generative AI platform built for national-security agencies and other highly regulated areas, for $250 million.Outside of AI, Paramount Skydance climbed 9.4%, even as the entertainment giant fell short of Wall Street’s revenue and profit targets. It was the company’s first earnings report since Skydance closed its acquisition of Paramount in early August, and investors were apparently encouraged that it raised its 2026 cost-cutting goal to $3 billion from the previous $2 billion.In stock markets abroad, indexes rose in Europe following a mixed finish in Asia.Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.1% even though SoftBank climbed 2%. Besides the sale of its Nvidia stake, the tech giant also reported a much bigger profit than analysts expected.In the U.S. bond market, trading is closed for the Veterans Day holiday.Yields have been generally rising since Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned last month that further cuts to interest rates are not assured. The Fed has already cut its main interest rate twice this year in hopes of shoring up the slowing job market. But it’s worried that inflation, which has stubbornly remained above the Fed’s 2% target, could reaccelerate.What’s potentially making the Fed’s job more difficult is that the U.S. government’s shutdown has delayed important updates on jobs and other areas of the economy. The Senate has made moves to end what’s become the longest-ever shutdown, but it’s not assured.That has left the Fed and investors looking at reports coming from sources outside of the government, which have offered a mixed picture.A job tracker at Goldman Sachs suggests growth slowed in October from September. After including the effect of a deferred resignation program at the government, U.S. employers overall may have cut 50,000 jobs in October, according to economist David Mericle.Such softening in the job market has traders betting on a roughly two-in-three chance that the Fed will cut interest rates at its next meeting in December, according to data from CME Group. Expectations for such cuts, which Wall Street loves because they can goose the economy and investment prices, are another reason stocks have hit records recently.___AP Business Writers Chan Ho-Him and Matt Ott contributed.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Lucid Sold Almost No Cars
Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID) sold a tiny number of vehicles in the third quarter. The $7,500 tax credit on electric vehicles (EVs) probably made that number less tiny. However, the expiration of the credit will likely reduce the tiny number in the fourth quarter and beyond. The news drove the stock down 10%, adding yesterday’s trading to the morning’s.Lucid Group IncNASDAQ:LCID$21.67▼ $6.62(30.54%)3MPre-Market1D5D1M3M6M1Y5YMAX-->-->24/7 Wall St. Key Points:Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID) said it sold few vehicles in the third quarter.The EV maker’s announcement was awful for three reasons.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)-->-->The company announced that it delivered 4,078 vehicles and produced 3,891. About 1,000 were assembled in Saudi Arabia. The kingdom is Lucid’s largest shareholder, via various investment companies.Barron’s listed three reasons the announcement was awful. Wall Street was looking for a better number. Another reason is that Lucid vehicles are too expensive to qualify for the tax credit, though people can still receive it when they lease. Either way, the credit is gone. The third reason is its reverse stock split.Lucid is too small to survive and too expensive to acquire. Based on its finances, no one would pay close to the stock price anyway. Although it had declined by almost 90% over the past five years, Lucid still has a market capitalization of nearly $7 billion. Ford’s value is approximately $50 billion, but it is one of the largest car companies in the world.Finally, as mentioned, Lucid cars are too expensive. The base price of its least expensive model is $70,000. Its higher-end cars cost more than $100,000. Who would buy a car from a company that loses billions of dollars and may not be around much longer?Lucid Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030If You’ve Been Thinking About Retirement, Pay Attention (sponsor)Retirement planning doesn’t have to feel overwhelming. The key is finding expert guidance, and SmartAsset’s simple quiz makes it easier than ever for you to connect with a vetted financial advisor. Here’s how:Answer a Few Simple Questions. Get Matched with Vetted Advisors Choose Your Fit Why wait? Start building the retirement you’ve always dreamed of.Get started today! (sponsor)
Harvard now owns nearly half a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin, filings show
Harvard is home to top intellectuals, famous alumni, and, more recently, a sizable hoard of Bitcoin. The university has more than $442 million dollars in the BlackRock-issued ETF called iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which provides exposure to the cryptocurrency in the form of stock, according to filings released on Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Recommended VideoIn 2025, major companies and institutions have lined up to invest in crypto, including those from Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and increasingly, the Ivy League. Brown University has also disclosed roughly $14 million in crypto ETF holdings. Harvard has more money in the Bitcoin ETF than it does in any other stock, including its stakes in mainstay companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon. While half a billion dollars in IBIT is nothing to sneeze at, it accounts for less than 1% of the university’s nearly $57 billion endowment. Harvard did not respond to a request for comment about its decision to invest in Bitcoin.Eric Balchunas, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, posted on X on Friday that Harvard’s investment in IBIT was “as good a validation as an ETF can get.”The fund Harvard invested in is one of the first spot crypto ETFs to launch in the U.S. When it went public in January 2024, it marked the end of a more than decade-long battle between the crypto sector and the SEC. It was also the first time that U.S. investors could invest in Bitcoin through their brokerage accounts, rather than through crypto exchanges.Even with a recent slump in Bitcoin prices, IBIT’s total market cap is well over $70 billion. Although Harvard’s $442 million stake in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is yet another sign of crypto’s growing institutional acceptance, a year of wins for the industry hasn’t translated to a big price increase for Bitcoin. In the last year, Bitcoin has gone up less than 0.5%, a fraction of the S&P 500’s 13% rise during that time. Bitcoin shot up to its all-time high price of almost $126,000 last month but is down roughly 27% to less than $92,000. Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
OpenAI’s partners are carrying $96 billion in debt, highlighting growing risks around the loss-making AI company
Companies supplying data centers, chips, and “compute” processing power to OpenAI have taken on about $96 billion in debt to fund their operations, according to an analysis by the Financial Times. The news highlights the AI sector’s increasing reliance on debt and its growing dependence on loss-making AI startup OpenAI in particular.Currently, the revenues being generated by AI companies and many of the data center operators that are rapidly expanding in order to serve them, are nowhere near big enough to cover their build-out costs. OpenAI has made $1.4 trillion in commitments to procure the energy and computing power it needs to fuel its operations in the future. But it has previously disclosed that it expects to make only $20 billion in revenues this year. And a recent analysis by HSBC concluded that even if the company is making more than $200 billion by 2030, it will still need to find a further $207 billion in funding to stay in business.Recommended VideoHere’s the FT’s breakdown of the debt that OpenAI’s partners have taken on:$30 billion already borrowed by SoftBank, Oracle, and CoreWeave.$28 billion in loans taken by Blue Owl Capital and Crusoe.$38 billion on the table in further talks with Oracle and Vantage and their banks.$96 billion in total debt.The increased use of debt to fund AI is a relatively new development—prior to this year most AI build-out was funded by cash straight from the balance sheets of big tech companies, such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta.How CoreWeave services its debt will be of particular interest to investors. The company reported $3.7 billion in current debt, $10.3 billion in non-current debt, and $39.1 billion in future lease agreements for data centers, in its Q3 earnings report. The company said it expected to make only $5 billion in revenue this year but that it had $56 billion in “revenue backlog” coming down the line.All the companies were contacted for comment. CoreWeave and Oracle declined comment when reached byFortune.Separately, the big five hyperscalers—Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle—have taken on $121 billion in new debt this year to fund AI operations, according to Bank of America. That’s more than four times the average level of debt ($28 billion) issued by these companies over the previous five years.All that extra investment-grade (IG) corporate debt is having a material effect on the credit markets, a recent research note from BofA analysts Yuri Seliger and Sohyun Marie Lee said.“This week (the week prior to Thanksgiving) is typically the last week of the year with heavy IG supply. And 2025 supply is ending the year with a bang. We are tracking about $50bn for this week and about $220bn over the prior four weeks – about 70% higher than the typical volume for this time of year,” they said.“This year … hyperscalers added another $63bn. This suggests the entire increase in supply this year is explained by [debt-funded M&A deals] and hyperscaler activity.”The increased supply of debt from tech companies is moving “spreads”—the extra interest yield demanded by buyers of debt above the notional risk-free rate—in the credit default swap (CDS) market, according to Deutsche Bank. CDS act as a kind of insurance policy on corporate debt, paying the holders in the event the creditor defaults. If the yields on CDS increase, it signals that the market believes the likelihood of default has also gone up.“The moves have been notable: Oracle’s 5yr CDS has widened by about +60bps to 104bps since late September and CoreWeave by roughly +280bps to around 640bps since September,” Deutsche’s Jim Reid said in a recent note.“It’s hard to know yet whether this shift will have meaningful long-term implications, but the last few weeks clearly mark a new phase of the AI boom—one in which investors are increasingly looking to hedge their risk, and one where public credit markets are being called upon to fund growing capex needs. It’s not just the hyperscalers’ free cash flow anymore,” he said.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Coinbase CEO Sees Bitcoin at $1 Million by 2030—Is This a Realistic Target?
We’ve heard some pretty outrageous longer-term price targets onBitcoin(CRYPTO:BTC) and other cryptocurrencies (think Ethereum) in recent years. And while it seems absurd to envision a single Bitcoin going for $1 million one day, let’s just say anything is possible in the wild world of crypto. In any case, Bitcoin goes for just north of $114,000 today, so a run to the million-dollar mark would entail just shy of a 900% rise from current levels. That’s quite obscene, but then again, I was wrong about Bitcoin passing the $100,000 mark when they were going for closer to $20,000.In any case,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong is nothing short of upbeat about Bitcoin and its potential over the next five years. While I wouldn’t rule out Bitcoin at $1 million in 30 years from now, I do think that the five-year target is a tad aggressive, to say the least. Indeed, I’d imagine that such bullish comments might inspire some to bet the farm on the cryptocurrency, especially on the latest dip.-->-->Key PointsCoinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has a lofty price target for Bitcoin in the next five years.I’m not nearly as bullish on Bitcoin and would encourage investors to buy steep dips and manage downside risks.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)-->-->Coinbase CEO is incredibly bullish on Bitcoin’s trajectory from hereAs a part of Armstrong’s prediction, he thinks that macro tailwinds and increased adoption of Bitcoin as some sort of “digital gold” could help power further gains from here. In any case, Bitcoin would need to really gain momentum if it’s to have a chance of reaching the $1 million mark by 2030. And while the target could pan out in a bull-case scenario (it’s certainly not outside the realm of possibility, especially if the stock market boom continues without a bear market moment over the next five years), I’d be more inclined to view Bitcoin as correlated to tech stocks (think the Nasdaq 100) than a risk-off asset like gold.Though there are plenty of other crypto bulls with lofty price targets and expectations for the coming years (notably, Cathie Wood and Jack Dorsey are major bulls on Bitcoin), I do think that there’s as much downside risk as upside risk, especially given the potential for Bitcoin to plunge if a so-called “AI bubble” were to burst at some point. In any case, I don’t think overvaluation concentrated in AI stocks has to end in a spectacular bursting of a bubble.Indeed, not all paths lead to a repeat of the 2000-01 dot-com bust, at least in my humble opinion. In any case, as a prospective crypto investor, I’d look more into a base-case scenario while being mindful of a potential bear-case to pan out (think a tech-focused sell-off that spreads through the crypto markets).Bitcoin could continue to be a choppy ride. Buying up the dips incrementally could be a way to counter volatilityEven if Bitcoin is destined for another meteoric rise, there are sure to be bumps in the road. And I’d much rather be a net buyer on such dips than when most others are upbeat and pound-the-table bullish. So, is Bitcoin at $1 million by 2030 realistic? I don’t think it is. Such a move would entail a lot of things going right, and while, in theory, such a scenario could play out, I’d be more focused on riding out the bumps and bear markets along the way and buying incrementally than backing up the truck with a specific target in mind.Even if Bitcoin were to blast off in the coming years, shares of Coinbase might be a better way to play the move. The shares are up more than 104% in the past year, beating the price of Bitcoin, which has gained just north of 87%. Additionally, I’d also be inclined to give some of the other cryptocurrencies out there some more love. Ethereum, XRP, and others might have more runway over the next five years, and increased interest in the entire crypto asset class, I believe, could be a boon for shares of the major crypto exchange platform.So, Bitcoin at $1 million by 2030? I wouldn’t count on it. But that doesn’t mean crypto and crypto-related stocks can’t continue to do well from here.If You’ve Been Thinking About Retirement, Pay Attention (sponsor)Retirement planning doesn’t have to feel overwhelming. The key is finding expert guidance, and SmartAsset’s simple quiz makes it easier than ever for you to connect with a vetted financial advisor. Here’s how:Answer a Few Simple Questions. Get Matched with Vetted Advisors Choose Your Fit Why wait? Start building the retirement you’ve always dreamed of.Get started today! (sponsor)
Prediction: These 2 Stocks Will Split in 2026
It can be pretty tough to predict when the next share split will be for any given name. Undoubtedly, some stocks can continue flying into the high hundreds and even settle into the thousands for many years at a time. And while stock splits are great for accessibility, I do think that with the rise of partial share purchases that stock splits are becoming less of a critical factor for managers.Arguably, letting a stock run its course into the three- or four-figures may be a trait that separates a stock from the pack. Either way, in this piece, we’ll look at some stock-split candidates that have a relatively decent chance of making an announcement. Of course, only time will tell when the following names, which trade in the four figures, will finally make an announcement that’d be sure to get the smaller retail crowd more interested in stepping in as a buyer.While I wouldn’t get my hopes up for a split in the following names, I do think that they’re long overdue for a big announcement, if not next year, perhaps within the next three years, especially if they continue to appreciate further into the four figures.-->-->Key PointsIf there are stocks that are in need of a split, it’s NFLX and MELI, in my opinion.Both NFLX and MELI look poised to soar further, making them worthy stock-split candidates going into 2026.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)-->-->NetflixNetflix(NASDAQ:NFLX) stock hasn’t been in the four-figure zone for very long. And it might dip below $1,000 per share in the coming weeks and months if Elon Musk’s calls for Netflix subscription cancellations pave the way for a rough quarter. I think the selling pressure is now a bit overdone, and I think investors are underestimating the company’s ability to enhance its content library and margins with a bit of help from generative AI. Indeed, Sora 2 is here, and it’s taken the world by storm. While Netflix hasn’t quite made a massive splash in generative AI content quite yet, I do think that it’s worth thinking about the possibilities today, especially as models like Sora get better by the year. Looking ahead to 2026, Netflix is poised to use AI to help generate ads. If effective, the ad-based tier might be in for a massive boost.Of course, there will always be a place for human stories, but in a decade or so, I wouldn’t be surprised if AI were to augment and automate more aspects of content production. In any case, I also envision a scenario where the rise of AI could lower the barriers to producing original content. As such, Netflix will need to stay on its toes to retain the streaming crown.Either way, I think the name is long overdue for a split. Perhaps a 10-to-1 split would make the name more of a household name among beginning investors who might be a bit off-put if they don’t have the proceeds to pick up a single share.MercadoLibreMercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI) stock has been gaining traction, now up 74% in two years. The Latin American e-commerce firm is continuing to grow at a comfortable double-digit pace. And with the financial technology segment pulling more than its fair share of weight, it doesn’t look like the growth is about to slow anytime soon, even amid macro pressures.As the stock continues its ascent, shares look to be getting further out of the reach of everyday retail investors. Today, shares go for over $2,100 per share, making a single share quite a hefty investment for a lot of people. Though time will tell, I do think the firm could attract a lot of young market newcomers if it were to move ahead with a 20-to-1 stock split.Will a big split happen in 2026? I hope it does. However, I also wouldn’t be too surprised if management would rather keep things as they are, so that the name can reach the $3,000 mark, a milestone that not many stocks reach these days!If You have $500,000 Saved, Retirement Could Be Closer Than You Think (sponsor)Retirement can be daunting, but it doesn’t need to be.Imagine having an expert in your corner to help you with your financial goals. Someone to help you determine if you’re ahead, behind, or right on track. With SmartAsset, that’s not just a dream—it’s reality. This free tool connects you with pre-screened financial advisors who work in your best interests. It’s quick, it’s easy, so take the leap today and start planning smarter!Don’t waste another minute; get started right here and help your retirement dreams become a retirement reality.(sponsor)
Scott Galloway fears a market crash or social crisis in the next year. A top finance professor recommends putting money into baseball cards
Scott Galloway, the entrepreneur and NYU Stern marketing professor, issued a stark warning about the economy over the weekend on his Prof G Markets podcast, co-hosted with Ed Elson. But one of his colleagues, NYU Finance Professor Aswath Damodaran, offered up an even bleaker view. The market isn’t pricing in something “potentially catastrophic,” Damadoran said, so taking your money out of stocks and moving it into baseball cards isn’t a crazy idea.Recommended VideoTop financial commentator Robert Armstrong, of theFinancial Times‘ Unhedged blog, took notice (Armstrong famously coined the term “TACO” trade, for “Trump always chickens out”). Damadoran is unusual, Armstrong wrote, because he’s not a perma bear like, say, Michael Burry of “The Big Short” fame, who has warned of a bubble and cryptically closed his hedge fund. Damadoran is “a true enthusiast” who “likes investing, believes in markets, and has a strong risk appetite.”Armstrong argued the view is worth considering, even if you believe, as Armstrong does, that a growing U.S. economy and strong cash flow and less-wild valuations elsewhere in the Magnificent 7 aren’t at bubble levels. He said he can only offer “a mild level of disagreement” with Damadoran’s statement that there’s “nowhere to hide in stocks” amid the AI boom/bubble situation. Galloway has been saying there’s nowhere to hide somewhat often recently, as he and Elson found Sam Altman’s recent statements to be an “emperor has no clothes” kind of moment.Here’s what Galloway, Elson and Damadoran discussed. Warning: it’s grim.Social unrest, or stock market collapse?Regarding the trajectory of the American economy, Galloway forecast an inevitable reckoning within the next 12 months. He said the U.S. faces either “chaos in the labor markets” due to generational inequality, or a severe market correction that could see the “Magnificent 7” technology stocks “cut in half.”Galloway suggested that the only visible return on investment (ROI) from the massive AI spending so far is “efficiencies”—which he describes as “Latin for layoffs.” This would be a disaster given the increasing levels of concentration in the S&P 500, with a calculation in October finding that 75% of gains and 80% of profits in the index were somehow AI-related since the release of ChatGPT three years earlier.While acknowledging that cyclical bubbles are a natural part of markets, Galloway and Damadoran discussed how the scale of the current risk is amplified because 40% of the S&P’s total market cap rests in just 10 companies—including the “Magnificent Seven”— creating an unhealthy and fragile market susceptible to a global ripple effect if the AI bubble bursts.Damodaran largely validated this “broader thesis,” noting there is “very little evidence right now” of a lucrative AI product and service market. He said to justify the current investment in AI architecture, the AI products and services market must generate approximately $4 trillion in revenues—a far cry from the tens of billions it generates today.Companies like Nvidia are trading at prices that look “most irrational,” according to Damadoran, as the valuation suggests the company will have to deliver 80% gross margins “in perpetuity on revenues that are going to be a trillion dollars or more.” That would make it “the greatest company ever,” he said, adding that it just doesn’t hold up to any kind of scrutiny, although Nvidia is surely a great company.Catastrophe and baseball cardsDamadoran said he believes the market is not pricing in the risk of a “market and economic crisis that is potentially catastrophic,” with the chances of this happening perhaps greater than any time in the last 20 years. If the top 10 stocks decline by 40%, Damadoran argued, “it’s not like the industrials are going to hold their value while this happens,” with a panic ensuing that will “ripple through stocks.” Damodaran noted the rising price of gold, hitting all-time highs while stocks are also up, suggests a subset of the market believes “something bad is coming.”Galloway, who has known Damodaran for 25 years, said he had “never heard that tone” of pessimism from his colleague, who is typically biased toward staying in the market. Damodaran said he is considering moving his money entirely into cash and “perhaps collectibles,” naming baseball cards as one possibility. “If that’s where you want to put some of your money into is baseball cards, because you’ve truly done your work on baseball cards, who am I to step in and say that’s not a great place to put your money?”The professor clarified that for the first time in his investing career, he is looking at parking money into alternative assets himself, adjusting his portfolio to hold a “bigger chunk than ever into cash or something close to cash or maybe even collectibles.” Damadoran confirmed that he owns less of his portfolio in stocks and bonds than probably at any time previously. He noted that Ray Dalio has been speaking of gold a lot recently: “The very fact that Ray Dalio is holding gold tells you something about safe places and how difficult it’s become to find them within the financial asset markets.”Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Is Opening a New Credit Card Every Year a Smart Move For Perks and Payments?
-->Key PointsA Reddit user is wondering if opening up a new card once a year is too much.While getting new cardholder bonuses is attractive, opening cards too frequently can damage your credit and put you at risk of missed or late payments.Instead of opening too many cards, consider researching and finding one or two really great cards that are a good fit.It’s hard to believe, but today there are credit cards offering up to 5% cash back, large statement credits, $0 annual fees, travel rewards, and more. See for yourself. If you apply for a card today you could secure some of the best rewards out there. Get started today.-->-->A Reddit user is thinking about taking an unconventional approach to earning credit card rewards. The original poster said in a recent thread that he wanted to open a new credit card every year. He’d pay his insurance on it, which would give him enough charges to qualify for a new cardmember bonus. He could then take advantage of all the perks the card offered, including the rewards and that new cardmember bonus, which was effectively free money. The poster wanted to know if this was a bad idea and if there were any downsides to it. So, let’s take a look at whether it is a good strategy or one that isn’t likely to pan out in the end.Pros and cons of opening a new credit cardThe OP’s plan to open a new card and make an insurance payment with it each year isn’t necessarily the worst idea in the world. In fact, there’s one big perk of taking this approach. If the OP opens the new card specifically to pay insurance premiums, this should hopefully give him enough money to earn the new cardmember bonus for that card, without feeling pressured to spend on a bunch of stuff. New cardmember bonuses often require you to spend $500 or even $1,000 or more in the first three months to qualify for added cash back, rewards, or miles. Covering one big fixed cost on the card eliminates the need to do that, reducing the chances of overspending. However, there are also some big downsides to opening a new card every year, including the following:Too many inquiries hurt your credit score. Inquiries are requests to check your credit when you apply for a new loan or a new card. They stay on your credit history for two years, and too many can reduce your score because applying for so much credit in a short time suggests you may be getting into too much debt.You’ll lower your average age of credit. This is another important part of your credit score. A longer average age of credit is better, as it shows you have been responsible for a long time. Unfortunately, if you open a new card each year, your average age of credit will remain shorter because you’ll constantly be adding a new credit line. You’ll end up with a lot of cards to manage. Getting a new card every year can leave you with an overwhelming number of credit cards. It may soon become hard to keep track of everything, which means you could risk missing payments. You could also end up using the wrong card for each purchase because you can’t really remember which of your many cards provides bonus rewards for gas, groceries, or travel. There’s an opportunity cost. When you spend time researching, opening a new card, and changing your payments to it, this can all take time. If you have other, more lucrative or more fun things that you could be doing with your time, you may not want to waste it chasing a few hundred dollars in credit card rewards. Your card issuers may cut you off. Card companies don’t really want customers who open their card to get a new cardmember bonus and then leave the cards sitting in a drawer instead of using them. You could find yourself eventually getting cut off from getting new credit, as some companies have rules on how frequently you can apply for cards. Your card issuer could also close accounts or reduce your credit limit if you aren’t using your cards regularly, which would be hard to do if you have a ton of them.All of these downsides must be carefully considered because they may convince you that opening new cards all the time isn’t worth it.Is opening a new card every year a smart choice?For many people, opening a new card each year is simply too much. It’s a lot easier to find one or two great cash back cards, charge as much as you can on them, and make the most of your rewards that way. Just check out the card options available, find one that is a good fit for you, and make sure you pay off your card on time and in full every month. Today’s Top Rated Credit Cards Are Hard to Believe (sponsor)It’s hard to believe, but today there are credit cards offering up to 5% cash back, $0 annual fees, travel rewards, and more. See for yourself.I couldn’t believe it at first. Frankly, with rewards this good I don’t expect them to be available forever. But if you apply for a card today you could secure some of the best rewards out there. Get started and find your best card today.
3 Low-Risk ETFs That Smoke the S&P 500’s Long-Term Gains
-->-->Key PointsTheS&P 500‘s 2.7% drop on Friday expose its tech-heavy tilt. Top 10 stocks represent 37% of the index’s weight, while the Magnificent 7 account for about 35% of YTD gains. The overrepresentation amplifies losses, eroding the index’s broad-market status.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)-->-->Friday’s market meltdown laid bare the vulnerabilities of theS&P 500. The index plunged 2.7%, erasing weekly gains amid President Trump’s threat of massive new tariffs on Chinese imports. This sharp drop — its worst single-day loss since April — stemmed directly from the index’s heavy reliance on a handful of tech giants. The top 10 stocks now command nearly 37% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization, up from 27% during the 2000 dot-com peak. Among them, the Magnificent 7 hold an outsized sway, accounting for about 35% of the index’s weight.This concentration has fueled impressive returns, but also amplified risks. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 gained 12.5%, yet the Mag 7 contributed 42% of those gains. Their influence was even starker last year when the group drove nearly 70% of the index’s 23% advance. This highlights how the S&P has morphed from the broad-based benchmark it was decades ago into a proxy for a few high-flying names.This shift makes the classic set-and-forget strategy of buying the S&P far riskier than before. Volatility spikes, like Friday’s, can wipe out months of progress if those top holdings falter. Yet investors seeking steady, long-term compounding need not abandon passive approaches. By layering in quality controls — filters for profitability, low debt, and earnings stability — the three exchange-traded funds (ETFs) below deliver superior risk-adjusted returns. They outperform the S&P 500 over a decade while dialing down volatility, offering a smarter path to durable gains.iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL)TheiShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF(CBOE:QUAL) targets U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks exhibiting strong fundamentals. It tracks theMSCI USA Sector Neutral Quality Index, which scores companies on return on equity, stable year-over-year earnings growth, and low financial leverage. These metrics weed out speculative plays, favoring resilient firms like those in healthcare and industrials alongside select tech leaders. The result: a portfolio of about 125 holdings, sector-neutral to avoid overexposure to any one area, and weighted by quality score multiplied by market cap.Loading stock data...This approach has delivered robust long-term performance with tempered risk. QUAL’s 10-year annualized total return stands at 14.2%, topping the S&P 500’s 12.1% over the same stretch. Its edge comes from consistent outperformance during downturns while allowing for quicker recoveries. On the risk front, the ETF’s three-year standard deviation clocks in at 13.2%, below the S&P 500’s 17.8%. This lower volatility stems from avoiding debt-laden or erratic earners, yielding a superior Sharpe ratio of 1.30 compared to the benchmark’s 1.27. For buy-and-hold investors, QUAL proves quality screens enhance returns without the wild swings of cap-weighted indexes.JPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF (JQUA)TheJPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF(NYSEARCA:JQUA) emphasizes profitability and earnings consistency across roughly 250 U.S. stocks. Drawing from the Russell 1000, it selects holdings via a composite score blending return on assets, gross margins, and earnings variability — prioritizing companies that generate cash efficiently without excessive debt. To promote diversification, JQUA caps sector weights at 30% and integrates a stability buffer, ensuring no single stock exceeds 5% of assets. This setup balances blue-chip stability with growth potential, including names likeEli Lilly(NYSE:LLY) in pharma andVisa(NYSE:V) in financials.Loading stock data...Over the long haul, JQUA has beaten the benchmark index while keeping drawdowns in check. Since its November 2017 inception, annualized return hits 14.2%, surpassing the index by 150 basis points annually. This stems from its focus on high-margin leaders that weathered 2022’s bear market with a mere 13.5% decline, versus the S&P’s deeper 19.4% hit. Risk metrics underscore the appeal: the three-year standard deviation measures 12.4%, a good notch below the benchmark’s 15.9%, reflecting smoother paths through volatility spikes like Friday’s tariff-fueled rout. With a Sharpe ratio of 1.30 — higher than the S&P’s — JQUA suits those chasing compounded growth minus the gut-wrenching dips.Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF (SPHQ)TheInvesco S&P 500 Quality ETF(NYSEARCA:SPHQ) hones in on the S&P 500’s top tier, selecting the 100 highest-quality constituents based on return on equity, accrual ratios (to spot earnings manipulation), and leverage. Weighted by a blend of quality score and market cap, it amplifies proven performers while muting laggards — thinkMastercard(NYSE:MA) for steady financials orAccenture(NYSE:ACN) for consulting prowess. This intra-index filter keeps broad S&P exposure but elevates it, with semi-annual rebalances to refresh the roster.Loading stock data...SPHQ’s track record highlights quality’s compounding power at reduced risk. The ETF boasts a 10-year annualized return of 14.6%, outpacing the S&P 500’s 12.1% by more than two percentage points. It shone in choppy periods, limiting 2022 losses to 15.8% against the index’s 19.4%, thanks to its aversion to overleveraged firms. Volatility remains contained, with a three-year standard deviation of 15% — under the S&P’s 15.9% — delivering a Sharpe ratio of 1.39. For S&P loyalists wary of concentration, SPHQ refines the formula, capturing upside while buffering against the mega-cap maelstrom.If You have $500,000 Saved, Retirement Could Be Closer Than You Think (sponsor)Retirement can be daunting, but it doesn’t need to be. Imagine having an expert in your corner to help you with your financial goals. Someone to help you determine if you’re ahead, behind, or right on track. With SmartAsset, that’s not just a dream—it’s reality. This free tool connects you with pre-screened financial advisors who work in your best interests. It’s quick, it’s easy, so take the leap today and start planning smarter!Don’t waste another minute; get started right here and help your retirement dreams become a retirement reality.(sponsor)
Investors are still whistling past the graveyard amid Nvidia selloffs and a dragging government shutdown
U.S. stocks are ticking higher and approaching another record. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% early Wednesday and neared the all-time high it set a couple weeks ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 127 points after setting its own record the day before, while the Nasdaq composite climbed 0.3%. Technology stocks swung back upward. Advanced Micro Devices rallied after its CEO said the chip company is expecting better than 35% annual compounded growth in revenue over the next three to five years. Nvidia, the dominant player in chips used for artificial-intelligence technology, also rose.Recommended VideoTHIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.Wall Street is on track to open higher Wednesday with an end to the U.S. government shutdown appearing closer, and technology stocks appeared to regain their footing after wild swings this week.Futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.4% while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.3%. Futures for the technology-heavy Nasdaq index rose 0.6%.The longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history could be over as soon as Wednesday, but not without having tripped up an economy already under stress.More than a million federal workers haven’t been paid since Oct. 1. Thousands of flights have been canceled, a trend that’s expected to continue this week even if the U.S. government re-opens. Many food aid recipients have seen their benefits interrupted.The Congressional Budget Office estimated that a six-week shutdown will reduce growth in this year’s fourth quarter by about 1.5 percentage points.Additionally, the government shutdown cut off the flow of economic data on unemployment, inflation, and retail spending that the Federal Reserve depends on to monitor the economy’s health. That could mean that the Fed will not deliver a third interest rate cut at its December meeting, which was widely expected before the shutdown.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee is deeply divided over whether to reduce its key rate, partly because the economy’s health is unusually cloudy.The technology sector appears to have settled down after recent sell-offs, with concerns growing that share prices have grown too expensive. Nvidia, up 44% this year, is down 5% this week.CoreWeave, a close partner to Nvidia, tumbled 17% Tuesday after its expectations for the year ahead disappointed AI investors who have grown used to red-hot growth. The company went public in March. Its shares are up 3% early Wednesday.Advanced Micro Devices, whose shares have doubled this year, rose 5% overnight after the chipmaker forecast enormous revenue growth in its data center business due to AI demand.A big question has been whether investors will push the craze for AI stocks further.Their sensational growth has been one of the top reasons the U.S. market has hit records despite a slowing job market and high inflation. But their prices have shot so high that critics say they’re reminiscent of the 2000 dot-com bubble, which ultimately burst and dragged the S&P 500 down by nearly half.Elsewhere, in Europe at midday, France’s CAC 40 Germany’s DAX each surged 1.2%. Britain’s FTSE 100 was unchanged.In Asian trading, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.4% to finish at 51,063.31.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.9% to 26,922.73, while the Shanghai Composite edged down less than 0.1% to 4,000.14.Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.2% to 8,799.50. South Korea’s Kospi added 1.1% to 4,150.39.In energy markets, benchmark U.S. crude declined 65 cents to $60.39 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, lost 66 cents to $64.50 a barrel.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman is reportedly readying Pershing Square and a new fund to go public as soon as early next year
Bill Ackman is in talks to take his hedge fund management company Pershing Square public, alongside a new investment entity.Recommended VideoThe billionaire investor plans to orchestrate a double public offering as soon as early next year, theWall Street Journalreported Friday night, citing people familiar with the matter. The company filed a prospectus early last year for a new investment fund, Pershing Square USA. But it failed to materialize due to weak investor interest, and now he’s trying again.This time around,theJournalreported Ackman has sweetened the deal for investors who put money into the new fund by offering free shares of Pershing Square, which would also go public. Partners of the firm would give away up to 10% of their shares, the report said.TheFinancial Timesreported earlier on Friday that Ackman was readying Pershing Square’s public listing, but did not mention plans for the Pershing Square USA fund to go public as well.Two people briefed on the matter told theFTthat Ackman had begun preliminary talks with advisors about Pershing Square’s listing plans, which could come as early as the first quarter of 2026. They cautioned that they were early-stage conversations subject to change or be abandoned depending on market conditions. Pershing Square declined to comment toFortuneand hasn’t publicly commented on the matter in other reports.Pershing Square USA would be a closed-end fund, meaning it sells a fixed number of shares in a public offering. Shareholders can leave the fund only by selling their stakes to other investors at the current market price, no matter what the fund’s actual asset value is.After filing the prospectus in early 2024, Ackman ended funding for Pershing Square USA and withdrew its IPO in July of that year, as lack of investor interest made him scale back its size from $25 billion to $2 billion.Ackman founded Pershing Square in 2004, with initial capital from his own funds and backing from diversified holding company Leucadia National, which has been renamed to Jefferies Financial Group.Once known for activism, the hedge fund has since transitioned its strategy to focus on concentrated stakes in big public companies. It had over $21.4 billion in core assets as of October.Pershing Square recently bought nearly half of real estate firm Howard Hughes Holdings. Ackman has said his bid for the company would make it “a modern-day Berkshire Hathaway.”Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Big Bank Sees Quantum Computing Market Hitting $4B by 2030. Here Are 2 Stocks to Make the Leap
-->Key PointsIONQ and GOOG stand out as great quantum plays for risk takers and value seekers, respectively.It’s hard to tell how far along firms are on the quantum roadmap. Either way, many firms, large and small, seem poised to advance the revolutionary, emerging technology.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)-->-->The quantum computing market might overtake AI as the next big trade on Wall Street. Arguably, it already has, but the big question for many growth investors is if it’s time to punch a ticket into a pure-play, a blue chip with skin in the quantum game, or just wait around for another unknown firm to appear on the scene, perhaps in the form of an IPO at some not-so-distant point in the future.Either way, there are some big expectations as firms look to make the quantum leap.Bank of America(NYSE:BAC)thinks that the quantum computing market is capable of hitting $4 billion by 2030. I think that’s a very realistic target for the emerging industry, especially considering the pace of advancement and how AI might be able to give quantum innovation a nice boost at some point down the line.As I remarked in a previous piece,IonQ(NASDAQ:IONQ), one of the most popular quantum pure-play companies, hit one of its major milestones three years ahead of schedule, something that bodes very well for the quantum timeline.Indeed, after the red-hot runs in the quantum pure-play stocks, you’ll probably feel like a bubble-chasing speculator by buying here. However, if you’ve got disposable income to put to work and wouldn’t be surprised to see half of your investment be wiped out by a quantum pullback, perhaps it still makes sense to take a leap. Though, do mind the potential downside if you miss the ledge.In any case, here are a few names to play the quantum boom going into year’s end. We’ll start with a pure play and then go into a Magnificent Seven firm with skin in the quantum computing game.IonQIonQ stock has been seemingly unstoppable of late, gaining over 72% in the past month. Indeed, if you bought last month, you probably didn’t feel too great, given the risks and the melt-up that was already behind the stock. Fast forward to today, and IONQ has found a way to make new highs. Indeed, in my prior piece, I noted the possibility that investors were ignoring the company’s early milestone news amid broader tech sector volatility.While shares may look “peaky” at $73 and change, I still view IonQ as a small firm with so much room to the upside if things continue to go right. With a $23.7 market cap, IonQ is still a firm that could double up again and still be relatively undersized compared to the quantum opportunity at hand.With investors upbeat about the latestRigetti Computing(NASDAQ:RGTI)sales announcement (RGTI stock pole-vaulted over 13% in a day), perhaps there’s more gas left in the tank to take IONQ stock all the way to $100 per share.AlphabetAlphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)is considered by many to be one of the leaders in AI. It might also be one of the frontrunners in the quantum race, at least as far as the Magnificent Seven are concerned.Indeed, it seems like such a long time ago that Google pulled the curtain on its Willow chip, which pretty much kicked off a hyper cycle in the broad quantum scene. With lower error rates and impressive advancements in superconducting qubit tech, Google’s Willow has serious potential to transform Alphabet from an AI titan to more of an AI quantum behemoth.As Google sprints along its long-term quantum roadmap, time will tell how the near-$3 trillion giant fares versus its rivals. I think it’s an absolute mistake to think Google’s Quantum AI efforts won’t translate into something that really moves the needle for the mega-cap firm.Of course, quantum leaps would have more of an uplifting effect on the much smaller pure-plays. However, for those seeking relative safety, I think it’s hard to make a case for not owning some GOOG stock, given how much AI might give its quantum innovations a jolt.If you seek stability, GOOG seems like a smart bet, but if you want a shot at explosive upside potential, IONQ may still be worth buying up at these levels.If You have $500,000 Saved, Retirement Could Be Closer Than You Think (sponsor)Retirement can be daunting, but it doesn’t need to be. Imagine having an expert in your corner to help you with your financial goals. Someone to help you determine if you’re ahead, behind, or right on track. With SmartAsset, that’s not just a dream—it’s reality. This free tool connects you with pre-screened financial advisors who work in your best interests. It’s quick, it’s easy, so take the leap today and start planning smarter!Don’t waste another minute; get started right here and help your retirement dreams become a retirement reality.(sponsor)
Elon Musk revives billionaire beef with Bill Gates, says he better exit his ‘crazy short’ against Tesla soon or else add to his $1.5 billion in losses
Elon Musk is apparently still not over the fact that Bill Gates bet against Tesla, even as his multimillion-dollar short has ballooned into a $1.5 billion loss.Recommended VideoThe Tesla CEO, on a victory lap after shareholders approved his massive $1 trillion pay package, demonstrated his feud with Gates is alive and well—years after it started.“If Gates hasn’t fully closed out the crazy short position he has held against Tesla for ~8 years, he had better do so soon,” said Musk in a Sunday post.The post, in reply to an anonymous user commenting on the Gates Foundation’s offloading of Microsoft stock, breathes new life into Musk’s conflict with Gates, which dates back to 2022.Gates reportedly shorted, or bet against, Tesla’s stock to the tune of $500 million, earning him a personal text from Musk and “super mean” behavior, Gates said in a later interview with Musk biographer Walter Isaacson. The Tesla CEO at the time asked Gates bluntly if he had taken the short position, which the Microsoft cofounder confirmed, though he added in the message he wanted to talk about philanthropy possibilities.Musk, though, balked at the idea.“Sorry, I cannot take your philanthropy on climate change seriously when you have a massive short position against Tesla, the company doing the most to solve climate change,” he said in a message at the time.He followed up with a post on X making fun of Gates’ weight. Gates for his part said the short “has nothing to do with climate change. I have ways of diversifying,” he told the BBC.Despite Musk’s animosity, which Gates later explained away—“he’s super mean to so many people, so you can’t take it too personally”—Musk’s Tesla has turned the tables on Gates. It’s unclear exactly when Gates opened the short position, but since April 2022, when the exchange between Gates and Musk was publicized, the EV company’s stock has shot up at least 20%, but possibly more depending on the price Gates shorted the stock at.Gates’ bet had him underwater by $1.5 billion when the stock was trading at $400 per share, according to Walter Isaacson’s biography of Musk. The stock as of Monday was trading at about $408 per share.The reestablished feud between Gates and Musk comes as Musk, who has a net worth of $431 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, likely cemented his place as the world’s richest man for years to come thanks to a massive pay package approved by Tesla shareholders earlier this month. The largest CEO compensation plan ever proposed would give the Tesla CEO up to $1 trillion in compensation in exchange for his meeting of certain performance benchmarks, including boosting the stock to an $8.5 trillion market value, more than any other company in modern history.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Is VOO + QQQ the Ultimate Retirement Formula?
nextstayCCSettingsOffArabicChineseEnglishFrenchGermanHindiPortugueseSpanishFont ColorwhiteFont Opacity100%Font Size100%Font FamilyArialText ShadownoneBackground ColorblackBackground Opacity50%Window ColorblackWindow Opacity0%WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%200%175%150%125%100%75%50%ArialGeorgiaGaramondCourier NewTahomaTimes New RomanTrebuchet MSVerdanaNoneRaisedDepressedUniformDrop ShadowWhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%0%WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%0%You’re probably aware of how important it is to save well for retirement. But setting money aside for your later years is just part of the equation. You also need to invest your money in a manner that leads to steady growth over time.Now you’ll often hear that it’s important to maintain a diverse portfolio of assets when you’re trying to build a retirement nest egg. And that’s definitely good advice.But some people get overwhelmed by the idea of having to keep track of several dozen stocks. If you feel similarly, you may want to focus your investment strategy on ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, instead.The nice thing about ETFs is that they allow you to own a bunch of different assets with a single investment. That gives you the diversification you need without all of the legwork.Meanwhile, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) are two very different ETFs. But when combined, they could be a winning formula for building retirement wealth.How the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) worksThe Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) is often hailed as a great asset for everyday investors. The reason is that it’s set up to track the performance of the S&P 500 index, which consists of the 500 largest publicly traded companies by market cap.The nice thing about VOO is that it gives you exposure to the broad market, and that it consists of hundreds of established businesses. It also has an extremely low expense ratio, which means you’ll get to keep more of your returns.Historically, the S&P 500 has produced strong returns for investors. So for many people, investing solely in VOO is a solid choice. But if you combine VOO with QQQ, you may get to enjoy even more upside.How the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) worksQQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100 index, which consists of 100 of the largest non-financial companies. QQQ tends to focus on growth-oriented sectors like tech and has historically delivered strong returns. And like VOO, its expense ratio is low.However, QQQ carries a greater amount of risk than VOO because it’s so heavily concentrated in growth stocks. This means that while QQQ may deliver stronger returns when the market is up, it might also lose more value when the market is down.Why VOO + QQQ could be the winning formula for youIndividually, VOO and QQQ are strong investments. When combined, they could give you the best of all worlds.VOO give you the stability that comes with investing in the broad stock market. QQQ gives you a nice growth push, allowing you to potentially generate much stronger returns than what VOO is capable of.Plus, the nice thing about this combination is that it’s easy to maintain. If you were to invest in 15 established S&P 500 companies and another 15 tech or growth stocks, you’d probably have to rebalance your portfolio a lot more frequently.Of course, one thing you should realize is that both VOO and QQQ carry risk, since the value of both can swing wildly. If you’reinretirement, this combination may be too volatile for you without other stable assets to offset it. But if you’re in the process of building retirement wealth, you may find that VOO + QQQ = an optimal formula for you.Want Up To $1,000? SoFi Is Giving New Active Invest Users up to $1k in StockLooking to grow your money but unsure where to begin? SoFi Active Invest is offering a limited-time promotion—open an account, fund it with $50 or more, and you could receive up to $1,000 in complimentary stock for Active Invest accounts.From $0 commission trading to fractional shares and automated investing, this app is designed to simplify investing for everyone, whether you’re just starting or already experienced. Its easy to sign up and secure your bonus. (sponsor)DISCLOSURE:INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUEBrokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, member FINRA(www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org).Advisory services are offered by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 30 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify.Other fees, such as exchange fees, may apply. Please view our fee disclosure to view a full listing of fees.Investing in alternative investments and/or strategies may not be suitable for all investors and involves unique risks, including the risk of loss. An investor should consider their individual circumstances and any investment information, such as a prospectus, prior to investing. Interval Funds are illiquid instruments, the ability to trade on your timeline may be restricted. Brokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA(www.finra.org) /SIPC(www.sipc.org).There are limitations with fractional shares to consider before investing. During market hours fractional share orders are transmitted immediately in the order received. There may be system delays from receipt of your order until execution and market conditions may adversely impact execution prices. Outside of market hours orders are received on a not held basis and will be aggregated for each security then executed in the morning trade window of the next business day at market open. Share will be delivered at an average price received for executing the securities through a single batched order. Fractional shares may not be transferred to another firm. Fractional shares will be sold when a transfer or closure request is initiated. Please consider that selling securities is a taxable event.Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire investment Before trading options please review the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized OptionsInvesting in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) involves substantial risk, including the risk of loss. Further, there are a variety of risk factors to consider when investing in an IPO, including but not limited to, unproven management, significant debt, and lack of operating history. For a comprehensive discussion of these risks please refer to SoFi Securities’ IPO Risk Disclosure Statement This should not be considered a recommendation to participate in IPOs and investors should carefully read the offering prospectus to determine whether an offering is consistent with their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation. New offerings generally have high demand and there are a limited number of shares available for distribution to participants. Many customers may not be allocated shares and share allocations may be significantly smaller than the shares requested in the customer’s initial offer (Indication of Interest). For more information on the allocation process please visit IPO Allocation.
3 Reasons You Can’t Live on Social Security Alone
nextstayCCSettingsOffArabicChineseEnglishFrenchGermanHindiPortugueseSpanishFont ColorwhiteFont Opacity100%Font Size100%Font FamilyArialText ShadownoneBackground ColorblackBackground Opacity50%Window ColorblackWindow Opacity0%WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%200%175%150%125%100%75%50%ArialGeorgiaGaramondCourier NewTahomaTimes New RomanTrebuchet MSVerdanaNoneRaisedDepressedUniformDrop ShadowWhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%0%WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%0%There are many older Americans today who get the majority of their retirement income from Social Security. And there are plenty of people whoseonlysource of retirement income is Social Security.You do not want to end up in that predicament. Here’s why you can’t live on Social Security alone — and what you can do to avoid that fate.1. Social Security will only replace about 40% of your paycheckOnce you retire, you can expect to need less income than you did while you were working. Part of this stems from the fact that there’s no need to save for retirement while you’reinretirement. But also, some of your largest costs, like housing and transportation, may shrink.Still, you should expect to need about 70% to 80% of your former income to live comfortably once retirement begins. Social Security, however, will only replace about 40% of your former wages if you earn an average salary.Now if you’re willing to work longer, you could boost your monthly Social Security checks by delaying your claim past full retirement age. But still, you should not expect Social Security to replace your paycheck in its entirety, nor should you assume it’ll replace 70% to 80% of what you used to earn.2. Social Security is facing cutsIf you’ve been hearing rumors about Social Security going bankrupt, you should know that they’re bogus. Social Security is not in danger of disappearing completely since it’s funded primarily by payroll taxes.That said, Social Security is facing the possibility of benefit cuts in the near term. And if lawmakers don’t intervene, you may end up in a situation where Social Security replaces much less than 40% of your pre-retirement paycheck.While lawmakers do have solutions to prevent Social Security cuts, each one seems to have its own set of drawbacks. So it’s not a given that benefit cuts will be avoidable, even though lawmakers know they need to try.3. Rising healthcare costs will likely outpace your Social Security COLAsSocial Security benefits are eligible for a COLA, or cost-of-living adjustment, every year. The purpose of COLAs is to help recipients maintain their buying power as inflation drives costs upward.But there’s one expense that tends to outpace broad inflation — healthcare. The combination of Medicare premiums, deductibles, and copays could render future Social Security COLAs pretty useless. Without other income at your disposal, you might quickly fall behind.How to avoid financial struggles in retirementAt this point, you’re hopefully convinced that retiring on Social Security alone is not a good idea. So let’s talk about solutions to avoid that.One is to save well for retirement. Contributing just a few hundred dollars a month to an IRA or 401(k) could lead to a nice nest egg over time, especially if you invest that money wisely.Another option is to consider an annuity. An annuity is a financial tool that could end up paying you money on a regular basis for the rest of your life. Setting yourself up with an annuity on top of Social Security is a great way to not have to worry about outliving your savings.There are different types of annuities you can look at, so your best bet is to speak to a trusted financial advisor who can walk you through your options.Either way, make sure that you have more than just your monthly Social Security paycheck to spend in retirement. Even if you delay your claim for larger monthly benefits, Social Security is unlikely to be able to cover all of your bills, especially as healthcare costs rise. Setting yourself up with supplemental income could help you avoid a world of financial stress.Guaranteed Income With As Little as $1,000Most Americans don’t know where to turn for guaranteed income today. Savings accounts are a joke, bonds aren’t what they used to be, and even Treasuries look like they’re on shaky ground. But there is one good option many are overlooking. An annuity could grow your money steadily while you earn guaranteed income at a fixed rate. No stock-market risk involved.Earn a guaranteed 5.0% APY1 or more when you open a FastBreak™ annuity and contribute a minimum of $1,000.It basically takes no extra work at all other than opening the account and making your first contribution. It’s a. straightforward way to lock inguaranteed income for 3-10 years, with zero market risk. Even better, it’s self-directed, simple to open, flexible terms, and even comes with a 30-day window to change your mind. Get started.Disclosures: 24/7 wall st may receive compensation for actions taken from links provided here. 1Annual Percentage Yield (APY) rates subject to change at any time, and the rate mentioned may no longer be current. Please visit Gainbridge.io/fastbreak for current rates, full product disclosures and disclaimer. All guarantees are based on the claims-paying ability of the issuing insurance company. FastBreak™ is issued by Gainbridge Life Insurance Company in Zionsville, Indiana. Gainbridge Life Insurance Company is currently licensed and authorized to do business in 49 states (all states except New York), the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.
2 Dividend Stocks That Jim Cramer Wants Every Retiree to Own
-->-->Key PointsJim Cramer likes the following two dividend stocks.One is a Dividend Aristocrat and another is a Dividend King.Their dividends are well-covered, and both have a history of being consistent.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)-->-->Retirees and older individuals are among the biggest demographics who tune into Jim Cramer’s Mad Money show. You may disagree with Cramer’s investing methodology and critique his failures, but it’s undeniable that his opinions have sway.And when it comes to long-term dividend investing, those opinions have held up quite well. Cramer’s opinionated takes often go awry since he’s mostly asked about the trendiest growth stocks that are hard to assess. But when dealing with dividend stocks with a consistent track record, it’s no longer hit or miss. Jim Cramer has decades of experience with the stock market, and his input is worth lending an ear to when it comes to dividend stocks.Here are two dividend stocks he likes for retirees:Realty Income (O)Loading stock data...Realty Income (NYSE:O)is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that mostly has retail tenants. Its tenants are strong, and the company has managed to maintain a very stable and consistent portfolio over the years with little to no trouble. The occupancy rate has remained at 97% even in 2008 and continues to be high.The consistency is such that Realty Income is called “The Monthly Dividend Company”. It pays dividends to its shareholders every month. The yield right now is 5.38% and has declared 663 consecutive monthly dividends.Cramer thinks highly of O stock, but hebelieves “Realty Income is for people who are a little bit older.”Earlier this year, a 67-year-old called Cramer and asked about two high-yield dividend stocks. But before he could even finish the question, Cramer replied. He said, “No, no, no. If you need yield, just go by our Realty Income.”Realty Income raises the bar to the point where it has become the go-to monthly dividend stock. For retirees, I believe it’s the best one. Monthly dividends are convenient, and the yield is very high, but not unsustainable.Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)Loading stock data...Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)started developing a reputation for being a steady Eddie that you hold for almost no gains and a small dividend yield. Given that a 4%-plus yield is easily available risk-free these days, JNJ stock hasn’t been the most attractive despite it being a Dividend King with 63 consecutive years of dividend increases on record.However, the story is changing quickly. The stock is now up 29% year-to-date, and this is a rally that many believe could continue as JNJ makes up lost ground. Conceivably, it could end up well above $200 by year-end, and Cramer has some nice things to say about the business.He interviewed the company’s CEO last Friday, and this week, he said, “I’ve been worried about the talc lawsuits they have, but I believe the risk from the asbestos in the baby powder litigation has crested [peaked].” He elaborated, “…J&J has been winning all the cases, and it’s plain to keep fighting them one by one. Eventually, I bet the plaintiffs will realize it’s just too costly to keep on taking J&J.”Last month, he did a much deeper dive on Johnson & Johnson. On Mad Money’s September 11 show, Cramer said, “Nearly every other big pharma name is solidly in the red for the year. So how the heck did Johnson & Johnson defy the gravitational pull of this healthcare bear market? First off… It’s not just a drug company. It’s also got a terrific medical device business that accounts for 36% of their sales.”He elaborated, “J&J also has great franchises and really exciting technologies in other areas… has done a fantastic job to move past this big patent expiration… pharma business has both grown and outperformed sales expectations… More importantly, J&J has a fabulous oncology business. It’s simply on fire, with sales up 21% in the first six months of the year.”He ended his analysis of the company by saying “… a nice yield that’s just under 3%, very rare AAA balance sheet, bottom line here with so much momentum, but still a reasonable valuation… I say it could go through to $200.”If You have $500,000 Saved, Retirement Could Be Closer Than You Think (sponsor)Retirement can be daunting, but it doesn’t need to be. Imagine having an expert in your corner to help you with your financial goals. Someone to help you determine if you’re ahead, behind, or right on track. With SmartAsset, that’s not just a dream—it’s reality. This free tool connects you with pre-screened financial advisors who work in your best interests. It’s quick, it’s easy, so take the leap today and start planning smarter!Don’t waste another minute; get started right here and help your retirement dreams become a retirement reality.(sponsor)
SPY Got Beat 3-To-1 By This ETF This Year
-->-->Key PointsThe S&P 500 has performed well this year.However, some ETFs have still trounced its gains.This one ETF is “boring” in nature but is outperforming even most tech stocks.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)-->-->iShares Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:IAU)had significantly outperformedSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY)this year. While SPY has posted impressive gains of nearly 15% year-to-date—making this a stronger-than-average year for the S&P 500 with almost three months remaining—gold spot prices have made iShares Gold Trust a better investment so far in 2025. A new gold rush is brewingSpot gold prices have been explosive this year and have trounced even big-name tech stocks likeNvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)year-to-date. For the long-term, cost-conscious investor, iShares Gold Trust ETF is a great bet. It has $61.5 billion in total assets and low fees at just 0.25%, or $25 per $10,000.Loading stock data...Each share of IAU constitutes a fractional undivided interest in physical gold held in secure vaults by JPMorgan Chase Bank as the custodian. The gold is allocated, meaning it is specifically identified and held in the name of the trust.It’s ideal for investors who want direct gold price exposure without the hassle of buying, storing, or insuring bullion.IAU may not even be at its peak potential, as trends say that gold is set to continue going up. As of this writing, gold broke through $4,000/oz. Two years ago, this was a fantasy.Why a gold surge can continue for yearsThere is a “perfect storm” underway for the yellow metal. First, the Federal Reserve is restarting interest rate cuts, with one already going through last month. Two more rate cuts are expected by the end of this year. Each tick lower in real yields automatically makes non-coupon gold more attractive as it lowers the opportunity cost for holding growth.Second, the U.S. dollar has softened significantly this year. This translates over into a higher price and then demand for gold. Central banks worldwide are expected to buy over 1,000 tonnes of gold in 2025 in a bid to diversify away from dollar-heavy reserves. Central banks have bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold for three consecutive years.On top of that, geopolitical fog, tariffs, and a U.S. government shutdown and hot conflicts in two regions have revived gold’s oldest use-case: the asset you own when nothing else feels safe.Reserve diversification is a multi-year theme, mine supply is flat despite the price incentive, and recycling flows have actually fallen as consumers hold old jewellery in anticipation of even higher quotes. Add the fact that global debt-to-GDP is still rising and real yields are still modest, and the floor under bullion looks more solid than usual.Can IAU keep trouncing the SPY?Analysts are constantly upping their price targets to follow the uptrend. UBS says $4,200 by year-end, with some having their price targets at $4,500 or more. Goldman Sachs says $5,000 next year. This implies a 25% gain from here, something that the S&P 500 is unlikely to match.For holders of IAU, the implication is that the ETF may still be in the early innings of a structural repricing rather than the late stages of a cyclical burst.Gold can and likely will correct sometime in the future, but holding cash and waiting for it to happen is not a smart idea today.If You have $500,000 Saved, Retirement Could Be Closer Than You Think (sponsor)Retirement can be daunting, but it doesn’t need to be. Imagine having an expert in your corner to help you with your financial goals. Someone to help you determine if you’re ahead, behind, or right on track. With SmartAsset, that’s not just a dream—it’s reality. This free tool connects you with pre-screened financial advisors who work in your best interests. It’s quick, it’s easy, so take the leap today and start planning smarter!Don’t waste another minute; get started right here and help your retirement dreams become a retirement reality.(sponsor)
Stock Market Live September 30: S&P 500 (VOO) Ascent Pauses as Investors Await Shutdown
-->-->Key PointsStart the shutdown clock. Absent Congressional action, the US government will shut down in less than 15 hours.The Department of Labor will stop issuing jobs reports if that happens. Speaking of which, Paychex just reported strong earnings as it begins its fiscal 2026.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; get started by clicking here.(Sponsor)-->-->Live UpdatesLive Coverage Has EndedGet The Best Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Live Earnings Coverage Like This Every QuarterGet earnings reminders, our top analysis on Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, market updates, and brand-new stock recommendations delivered directly to your inbox.Click Here - It's Free Thank you for subscribing! Keep an eye on your email for updates. By providing your email address, you agree to receive communications from us regarding website updates and other offerings that may be of interest to you. You can unsubscribe at any time. For more information, please review our Disclaimer and Terms of Use.Tuesday Wrap-upSep 30, 2025 4:15 PMLive The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF closed Tuesday at 612.36, up 0.4%.Freeport UpgradedSep 30, 2025 11:46 AMLiveBofA analyst Lawson Winder upgraded S&P 500 component companyFreeport-McMoRan(NYSE: FCX) to buy with an unchanged price target of $42 this morning.Winder came away from a meeting with Freeport CEO Kathleen Quirk feeling increasingly confident that key risks to the stock are already priced in, and says there’s now less downside risk. In particular, the analyst says estimates to repair the company’s Grasberg mine look “conservative,” and the cost could be lower than projected.Freeport stock is up 2.6% on the upgrade. The Voo however is now down 0.2%.Pfizer's Prices Will Drop -- and Pfizer Stock RisesSep 30, 2025 10:43 AMLiveThe Washington Post is reporting that the Trump Administration has struck a deal withPfizer (NYSE: PFE), whereby the drugs giant will sell medicine through Medicaid at reduced prices. The President signed an executive order in May ordering the government to negotiate lower prices — or impose them.Pfizer is a component of the S&P 500. Despite the likely hit to profits, its stock is up 2.3%.Celsius is Cool AgainSep 30, 2025 10:05 AMLiveMorgan Stanley analyst Eric Serotta upgraded energy drink-makerCelsius Holdings (Nasdaq: CELH) to overweight with a $70 price target.“Brand Celsius has returned to growth following last year’s share slowdown, and we expect further improvement, with much easier comps from December through early June,” said the analyst. Furthermore, Alani sales, which account for 40% of Celsius’s total sales, “remain robust ahead of the December 1 transition to the Pepsi system, which should accelerate growth for the brand. We expect both brands to benefit from improved alignment with PEP.”Half an hour into the day’s trading, Celsius stock is up more than 3%. The Voo is still down 0.1%.This article will be updated throughout the day, so check back often for more daily updates.It’s Tuesday, September 30 — and the U.S. government is about to run out of money.Unless Congress passes a new continuing resolution by the end of the day, the government will “shut down” at midnight, causing turmoil in the economy. Not the smallest threat, President Trump has threatened to fire a certain number of federal workers if a shutdown happened, adding to unemployment. Investors are holding their breath waiting to see what happens, and theVanguard S&P 500 ETF(NYSEMKT: VOO) is retreating 0.1% premarket.Adding to the uncertainty, CNBC reports this morning that if a shutdown does happen, the government will cease issuing certain data that investors depend upon to gauge the health of the economy, Friday’s scheduled payrolls report for September, for example. And of course, the absence of jobs reports will make it harder to calculate unemployment trends and, by extension, gauge the likelihood of a second Federal Reserve interest rates cut in October.Long story short, the market hates uncertainty, and things could get a whole lot less certain really, really soon.EarningsIn earnings news,United Natural Foods(Nasdaq: UNFI) beat earnings by a nickel this morning, reporting a fiscal Q4 2025 loss of $0.11 per share where analysts were expecting a 16-cent loss. Revenue was also better than expected at $7.7 billion.Rounding out the good news, United Natural Foods forecast fiscal 2026 earnings per share of $1.50-$2.30, versus the consensus of $1.46. Good earnings news plus good guidance has United Natural Foods stock trading up nearly 6% this morning.Payroll processorPaychex(Nasdaq: PAYX) also reported earnings this morning, beating by two cents with a $1.22 per share fiscal Q1 2026 profit. Revenue matched analyst forecasts at $1.54. Paychex forecast adjusted earnings growth between 9% and 11% this year, and investors seem disappointed with that number, though.Paychex stock is down more than 5% premarket.Guaranteed Income With As Little as $1,000If you’re a middle-class earner, you know savings accounts don’t pay nearly enough interest, and that the stock market can be too volatile. So stop relying on traditional methods to grow your wealth!An annuity could grow your money fast while you earn guaranteed income at a fixed rate. No stock-market risk involved.Earn a guaranteed 5.25% APY1 or more when you open a FastBreak™ annuity and deposit a minimum of $1,000.It basically takes no extra work at all other than opening the account and making your first deposit. It’s an easy way to lock inguaranteed income for 3-10 years, with zero market risk. Even better, it’s self-directed, simple to open, flexible, and even comes with a 30-day window to change your mind. Get started now. Disclosures: 24/7 wall st may receive compensation for actions taken from links provided here. 1Annual Percentage Yield (APY) rates subject to change at any time, and the rate mentioned may no longer be current. Please visit Gainbridge.io/fastbreak for current rates, full product disclosures and disclaimer. All guarantees are based on the claims-paying ability of the issuing insurance company. FastBreak™ is issued by Gainbridge Life Insurance Company in Zionsville, Indiana. Gainbridge Life Insurance Company is currently licensed and authorized to do business in 49 states (all states except New York), the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.Get Live Earning Updates on Vanguard S&P 500 ETFNever miss important earnings news. Get real-time updates delivered directly to your inbox. We'll also deliver our top stock recommendations and weekly market udpates. Signup -- It's Free Thank you for subscribing! Keep an eye on your email for updates. By providing your email address, you agree to receive communications from us regarding website updates and other offerings that may be of interest to you. You can unsubscribe at any time. For more information, please review our Disclaimer and Terms of Use.
Rebalancing your portfolio is important in today’s volatile market, experts say. Here’s how to get started:
If you’ve chosen a target asset allocation—the mix of stocks, bonds, and cash in your portfolio— you’re probably ahead of many investors. But unless you’re investing in a set-and-forget investment option like a target-date fund, your portfolio’s asset mix will shift as the market fluctuates. In a bull market you might get more equity exposure than you planned, or the reverse if the market declines.Recommended VideoRebalancing involves selling assets that have appreciated the most and using the proceeds to shore up assets that have lagged. This brings your portfolio’s asset mix back into balance and enforces the discipline of selling high/buying low. Rebalancing doesn’t necessarily improve your portfolio’s returns, especially if it means selling asset classes that continue to perform well. But it can be an essential way to keep your portfolio’s risk profile from climbing too high.Where and How to RebalanceIf it’s been a while since your last rebalance, your portfolio might be heavy on stocks and light on bonds. A portfolio that started at 60% stocks and 40% bonds 10 years ago could now hold more than 80% stocks.Another area to check is the mix of international versus U.S. stocks. International stocks have led in 2025, but that followed a long run of outperformance for U.S. stocks, so your portfolio might lack international exposure. (Keeping about a third of your equity exposure outside the U.S. is reasonable if you want to align with Morningstar’s global market portfolio.)Other imbalances might exist. Growth stocks have gained nearly twice as much as value stocks over the past three years. You might also be overweight in specialized assets such as gold and bitcoin thanks to their recent run-ups.After assessing your allocations, decide where to make adjustments. You don’t need to rebalance every account—what matters is the overall portfolio’s asset mix, which determines your risk and return profile. It’s usually most tax-efficient to adjust within a tax-deferred account such as an IRA or 401(k), where trades won’t trigger realized capital gains. For example, if you’re overweight on U.S. stocks and light on international stocks, you could sell U.S. stocks and buy an international-stock fund in your 401(k).If you need to make changes in a taxable account, you can attempt to offset any realized capital gains by selling holdings with unrealized losses. That might be difficult, as the strong market environment has lifted nearly every type of asset over the past 12 months. Only a few Morningstar Categories (including India equity, real estate, consumer defensive, and health care) posted losses over the trailing 12-month period ended Oct. 30, 2025. The average long-term government-bond fund lost about 8% per year for the trailing five-year period as of the same date, so those could offer opportunities for harvesting losses.Required minimum distributions can also be used in tandem with rebalancing. Account owners have flexibility in which assets to sell to meet RMDs. If you own several different traditional IRAs, you could take the full RMD amount from any of them. Selling off holdings that appreciated the most can bring the portfolio’s asset mix back in line with your original targets.Another option is funneling new contributions into underweight asset classes. Depending on the size of additional investments, this approach might take time, but it’s better than not rebalancing at all. This might also appeal if you’ve built up capital gains you don’t want to realize.Final ThoughtsRebalancing is especially important in extremely volatile times. But even in a more gradual bull market like in recent years, it’s important for keeping a portfolio’s risk level in check, especially for investors as they approach retirement and start spending their portfolios.___Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Netflix Doubled Your Money in 12 Months After Years of Lagging the Market
Netflix(NASDAQ: NFLX) went from mailing DVDs in red envelopes to dominating global streaming. That transformation created one of the most compelling investment stories of the past decade, but the path wasn’t smooth. The company weathered subscriber losses in 2022, fierce competition from Disney+ and HBO Max, and persistent questions about whether it could sustain growth after saturating major markets.nextstayCCSettingsOffArabicChineseEnglishFrenchGermanHindiPortugueseSpanishFont ColorwhiteFont Opacity100%Font Size100%Font FamilyArialText ShadownoneBackground ColorblackBackground Opacity50%Window ColorblackWindow Opacity0%WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%200%175%150%125%100%75%50%ArialGeorgiaGaramondCourier NewTahomaTimes New RomanTrebuchet MSVerdanaNoneRaisedDepressedUniformDrop ShadowWhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%0%WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%0%The answer came through strategic pivots. Netflix doubled down on international expansion, launched an ad-supported tier in late 2022, and cracked down on password sharing in 2023. These moves reignited subscriber growth and drove revenue acceleration. By 2024, the company reported $39.00 billion in revenue and $8.71 billion in net income. The most recent quarter (Q3 2025) delivered $11.51 billion in revenue, up 17% year over year, with a 28% operating margin despite a $619 million Brazilian tax dispute.The stock reflected this evolution. After touching lows around $48 in late 2019 and early 2020, shares climbed steadily through the pandemic and beyond, recently trading near $93.47 in early December 2025.Your $1,000 Turned Into $1,920 in One YearHere’s what a $1,000 investment would look like across different time horizons:1-Year Return (December 2024 to December 2025)Initial Investment:$1,000Current Value:$1,920Total Return:92.0%S&P 500 (same period):Approximately $1,250 (25% estimated)5-Year Return (December 2020 to December 2025)Initial Investment:$1,000Current Value:$1,927Total Return:92.7%Annualized Return:14.0%S&P 500 (same period):Approximately $1,850 (85% estimated)10-Year Return (December 2015 to December 2025)Initial Investment:$1,000Current Value:$1,927Total Return:92.7%Annualized Return:6.8%S&P 500 (same period):Approximately $3,200 (220% estimated)The 10-year picture reveals Netflix underperformed the broader market, largely due to the brutal 2022 drawdown when the stock lost over half its value. Investors who held through that period needed conviction. The recent surge, particularly in 2024 and 2025, came from operational execution: net income jumped 61% in 2023 to $5.41 billion as the company scaled subscribers while optimizing content spending.Timing mattered significantly. Those who bought in 2022 during the panic saw far better returns than decade-long holders.Market Outlook and Analyst PerspectivesAnalysts remain largely bullish on Netflix, with 34 buy ratings versus just 2 sells. The forward P/E of 32.68 suggests expectations for earnings acceleration compared to the current P/E of 41.77. The company’s return on equity of 42.9% demonstrates strong operational efficiency.However, the stock’s beta of 1.71 indicates high volatility, meaning shares can move sharply in either direction. The recent Q3 2025 earnings miss—reporting $0.59 versus $0.70 expected—has raised questions about potential margin pressure ahead, particularly given the $619 million Brazilian tax dispute that impacted operating margins.Key factors analysts are monitoring include whether the company can maintain its 17% revenue growth trajectory and how successfully the ad-supported business scales. The valuation leaves limited room for disappointment, with the current multiple pricing in continued strong execution.Want Up To $1,000? SoFi Is Giving New Active Invest Users up to $1k in StockLooking to grow your money but unsure where to begin? SoFi Active Invest is offering a limited-time promotion—open an account, fund it with $50 or more, and you could receive up to $1,000 in complimentary stock for Active Invest accounts.From $0 commission trading to fractional shares and automated investing, this app is designed to simplify investing for everyone, whether you’re just starting or already experienced. Its easy to sign up and secure your bonus. (sponsor)DISCLOSURE:INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUEBrokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, member FINRA(www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org).Advisory services are offered by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 30 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify.Other fees, such as exchange fees, may apply. Please view our fee disclosure to view a full listing of fees.Investing in alternative investments and/or strategies may not be suitable for all investors and involves unique risks, including the risk of loss. An investor should consider their individual circumstances and any investment information, such as a prospectus, prior to investing. Interval Funds are illiquid instruments, the ability to trade on your timeline may be restricted. Brokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA(www.finra.org) /SIPC(www.sipc.org).There are limitations with fractional shares to consider before investing. During market hours fractional share orders are transmitted immediately in the order received. There may be system delays from receipt of your order until execution and market conditions may adversely impact execution prices. Outside of market hours orders are received on a not held basis and will be aggregated for each security then executed in the morning trade window of the next business day at market open. Share will be delivered at an average price received for executing the securities through a single batched order. Fractional shares may not be transferred to another firm. Fractional shares will be sold when a transfer or closure request is initiated. Please consider that selling securities is a taxable event.Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire investment Before trading options please review the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized OptionsInvesting in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) involves substantial risk, including the risk of loss. Further, there are a variety of risk factors to consider when investing in an IPO, including but not limited to, unproven management, significant debt, and lack of operating history. For a comprehensive discussion of these risks please refer to SoFi Securities’ IPO Risk Disclosure Statement This should not be considered a recommendation to participate in IPOs and investors should carefully read the offering prospectus to determine whether an offering is consistent with their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation. 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Solving the ‘Tower of Babel’ problem of data transparency for investors
What would it take to get essential human capital data in the hands of every investor? One of the easiest answers to that question is: transparency. With better disclosure of human capital, we will have greater access to data and the insight that comes from them.Recommended VideoRight now, there are clear rules and regulations around capital disclosures that help investor decisions. These are the “10-K” annual and “10-Q” quarterly reports that all public companies must release to disclose their financial information and capital structure. Right now, there are no equally strict requirements for human capital. Every few years or so, there is a push for more transparent human capital disclosures. Sometimes, there’s some movement on the issue, but usually the policy lands in some form of voluntary disclosure. Currently, companies are required to report on various aspects of total number of FTEs, employee types, turnover rates, and similar metrics, but these have not reached the level of capital disclosures. Unfortunately, even with expectations around transparency, little can be learned because there is no way to compare the data that companies release. Transparency is not enough. Instead, we need clear standards so that all the data can talk to each other. Think about it this way: Even if there was mandatory reporting on job hiring, the reported data would be mostly meaningless outside the context of that one company. If Meta says that they have about 75% of their workforce employed as engineers, for example, what does that actually tell us? What kind of engineers are they? What work do they do each day? And, more importantly, how does that level of employment of the specific type of engineers compare to other companies? Is it the same? Is it different? Has it changed much over the years?Without standards, we end up with a “Tower of Babel” situation: Each company’s data is speaking a different language. There’s no way to know whether a “sales” position in one company is fundamentally the same thing as a “sales” position in another company.Take, for example, the position of an “economist.” I myself am an economist. But when I introduce myself as such, no one knows what that means. It’s ambiguous. Even so, my company hires many economists. So do major companies like IBM and Amazon. Amazon, in particular, is well known for hiring a lot of economists. However, all of these positions are completely different across companies. At IBM, the economists all work on macro-level reports, such as how the geopolitical situation in China will affect mainframe computing exports. They are basically collecting and analyzing trends that would affect the business and sharing those trends with the relevant staff. This might be more similar to a reporter than anything else, or some kind of industry analyst. At my company, we hire economists to basically fill two roles: a hybrid role of data science consultant and client success manager, in which they take the data from our products and help companies understand what this data means. In this way, they are client-facing, almost like customer service representatives. But they also take that data and write articles for our newsletter about trends – similar to the IBM economist focused on trends, but at a micro level, or maybe even a marketer. Amazon, however, hires economists to do three different things: forecasting, testing out new business policies, and assessing the market structure. The forecasters have backgrounds in macro and finance, and time series analysis, and support analyses that consider coming trends. The business policy roles are basically applied statisticians, using data to solve micro business problems. Those that assess the market structure are using different modeling designs to create pricing schemes and other things related to the online market to support business growth. In hiring these types of roles, Amazon is essentially using a data-driven approach to the company’s business practices, helping to maximize decision making in a number of ways. Currently Amazon hires more economists than any organization other than the Federal Reserve. All of these people leverage the position of “economist” to get work done, but comparing the data related to these positions across companies to identify trends would be a worthless endeavor. If an investor was to try to understand workforce trends or even company trends from changes in these positions, any conclusion that would be drawn would be inexplicable or counterintuitive. An investor may look at my team of economists and say we are over investing in research, without understanding that this economist team has a direct influence on our clients happiness (by helping them understand our data) and gaining new clients (by supporting our marketing efforts).I know these nuances between the economist roles across IBM, Amazon, and my company, but that’s because I have direct, qualitative experience in how those companies operate. I have acquired that knowledge through many conversations – and in the case of working at IBM and my own company, direct experience. Very few people have that kind of understanding of how different companies’ workforces are arranged and leveraged. Workforce taxonomies solve this problem. With appropriately designed taxonomies, we can give more accurate titles to positions, or have a deeper understanding of what a position title means. We can see if a company is hiring a macroeconomist that specializes in forecasting or a microeconomist that will help with client success. We can say with high levels of certainty that two jobs are indeed alike, across companies or even industries, and make analyses based on those comparisons. That is because the job titles are not based on arbitrary labels, but systematically determined and categorized through a robust data analysis process. They are developed through a combination of activities, which are the essential building block of work. With these taxonomies in place, investors can make strong inferences about the behavior and health of companies, and invest accordingly. For example, if a corporation makes a big announcement about investing in one area – like AI or VR – with the goal of becoming a market leader, we can look at the workforce data to understand how committed they are to this investment. If the company data shows that the salary they are looking to pay for engineers with an AI or VR speciality is way below market rate, you know that they are not going to obtain the top talent to execute on their bold vision. An investor interested in AI or VR might not want to put too much time or money into a company that isn’t serious about their commitment. Excerpted with permission from the publisher, Wiley, from Job Architecture: Building a Language for Workforce Intelligence by Ben Zweig. Copyright © 2026 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. This book is available wherever books and eBooks are sold.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Netflix’s $5.8 billion breakup fee for Warner among largest ever
Netflix Inc.’s $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. includes one of the biggest breakup fees of all time — a $5.8 billion penalty that Netflix has agreed to pay its target if the deal falls apart or fails to win regulatory approval.Recommended VideoAt 8% of the deal’s equity value, the fee is well above the average even in big-ticket dealmaking, signaling Netflix executives’ confidence they can convince global antitrust watchdogs to let the transaction go ahead. The average breakup fee in 2024 was equal to about 2.4% of the total transaction value, according to a report from Houlihan Lokey.Netflix’s multibillion-dollar pledge is also a sign of how heated the bidding war got for control of the iconic Hollywood studio. As part of a sweetened proposal earlier this week, rival suitor Paramount Skydance Corp. had more than doubled the proposed breakup fee in its offer to $5 billion.Warner Bros., meanwhile, would have to pay a $2.8 billion reverse breakup fee if its shareholders vote down the deal. If Warner Bros. were to accept a rival offer, the new buyer, in effect, would be on the hook for that fee.Here are some of the biggest breakup fees in M&A history, according to data compiled by Bloomberg:AOL/Time Warner Inc.Deal value: $160 billion America Online Inc. agreed to pay a fee of about $5.4 billion if it backed out of its agreement to buy Time Warner Inc. Time Warner would pay about $3.9 billion if it broke up the transaction under certain conditions.Percentage of deal value: 3.4%Outcome: CompletedPfizer/AllerganDeal value: $160 billionThe breakup fee could have been as high as $3.5 billion, but the merger had a contingency that it would be lower if there were changes to tax law. Pfizer ended up paying just $150 million after the US cracked down on corporate tax inversions Percentage of deal value: 2.2% (but paid less than 0.1%)Outcome: TerminatedVerizon/Verizon WirelessDeal Value: $130 billionBreakup Fee: This deal for Vodafone’s stake in Verizon Wireless was complicated. Verizon promised to pay a breakup fee to Vodafone of $10 billion if it couldn’t get financing for the deal, or $4.64 billion if its board changed its recommendation to shareholders to vote in favor of the transaction. Meanwhile, Vodafone would have owed $1.55 billion to Verizon if its board changed its mind, and either side would have had to pay $1.55 billion to the other if shareholders turned down the transaction. Vodafone also would have had to pay that $1.55 billion if an unfavorable tax ruling made it too onerous to complete the deal. Percentage of deal value: 7.7%Outcome: Deal completedAB InBev/SAB MillerDeal value: $103 billionBreakup fee: AB InBev agreed to pay a breakup fee of $3 billion if it failed to get approval from regulators or shareholders and instead walked away from what was then the biggest corporate takeover in UK history. Percentage of deal value: 2.9% Outcome: CompletedAT&T/T-Mobile USADeal Value: $39 billion Breakup fee: AT&T agreed to pay Deutsche Telekom a $3 billion breakup fee in cash, as well as transferring radio spectrum to T-Mobile and striking a more favorable network-sharing agreement. Percentage of deal value: 7.7%Outcome: Withdrawn after regulatory oppositionGoogle/WizDeal value: $32 billionThe companies agreed that Google would pay a breakup fee of about $3.2 billion — a huge chunk of the transaction value — if the deal didn’t close.Percentage of deal value: 10% Outcome: CompletedJoin us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
2 Mid-Cap Growth Stocks Dan Loeb Bought Up Last Quarter
SharkNinja(NYSE:SN) andPrimo Brands(NYSE:PRMB) are two stocks Dan Loeb of Third Point, who is one of my favorite professional money managers to follow closely, recently purchased.Just look underneath the hood of his portfolio, and you can see some very interesting names, many of which have impressive growth runways and reasonable (or perhaps unreasonably depressed) valuations. Perhaps most intriguingly, Loeb’s fund has some mid-cap gems, which might be a source of outsized long-term gains.-->-->Key PointsDan Loeb and Third Point made some interesting moves in the second quarter. Investors might wish to follow their coattails.SN and PRMB stand out as low-cost mid-cap hidden gems for value investors looking to diversify further.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)-->-->SharkNinjaSharkNinja, has a relatively interesting name and one that growth investors should familiarize themselves with, given its disruption potential in the kitchen and around the home. The company makes home appliances and various other handy products under the Shark and Ninja brands. Even if you’ve never heard of the stock, you might already have a Shark or Ninja product in your closet or kitchen.Now, SharkNinja is more than just a maker of vacuums and kitchen goods; it’s more of a technology firm that thrives at finding new ways to do things better. Whether that involves cleaning, cooking, or something else, SharkNinja designs products with customer feedback in mind.The company’s tech and consumer-focused approach has been a success, to say the least. Just look at the stock, which has more than doubled in the last two years despite the more recent 22% correction in shares. I think the latest dip is nothing more than a buying opportunity as the firm unlocks the power of reviews by actively listening and revisiting the drawing board if needed.Like a shark or a ninja, the company is agile and able to adapt to changing consumer tastes and preferences. At 25.7 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E), the $13.7 billion firm stands out as a cheap growth play to keep tabs on. With the firm teaming up with Kevin Hart and David Beckham, I do think SharkNinja is entering a golden age of growth as brand awareness looks to kick things up a few notches.Primo BrandsBet you’ve probably never heard ofPrimo Brands, formerly Primo Water, a Canadian-American firm in the business of bottled water. Whether we’re talking about hydrating the entire office with the company’s dispensers or consumer-facing brands such as Pure Life, Poland Springs, or Arrowhead, Primo is a hidden gem in the bottled water scene.Of late, things have been quite leaky for shares of Primo, which are down over 30% so far this year. Indeed, water sales have been under pressure of late, but with a strong portfolio of brands and stickiness in its subscription business, I think the latest dip is more than buyable.As more consumers turn away from sugary sodas and towards healthier beverage options (it doesn’t get much healthier than water), I suspect the long-term trend will be a friend of Primo. In the meantime, there’s a lot of work for management to do as they drive further efficiencies across the business. The $8 billion bottled water play may not be exciting, but it does have highly predictable cash flows. And with a mere 11.8 times forward P/E multiple, perhaps it’s not a mystery why Third Point was a buyer in the second quarter. Get Ready To Retire (Sponsored)Start by taking a quick retirement quiz from SmartAsset that will match you with up to 3 financial advisors that serve your area and beyond in 5 minutes, or less.Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests.Here’s how it works:1. Answer SmartAsset advisor match quiz2. Review your pre-screened matches at your leisure. Check out the advisors’ profiles.3. Speak with advisors at no cost to you. Have an introductory call on the phone or introduction in person and choose whom to work with in the future.
Why your 401(k) is safe from a 40% crash in stocks—but not a 10% to 15% correction, top analyst says
The recent euphoria surrounding the artificial intelligence mega-boom has led to massive concentration in the U.S. stock market, prompting fears of a catastrophic crash similar to the 2001 dotcom bust or the 2008 financial crisis. Many of these views have been aired recently on Scott Galloway and Ed Elson’s financial podcast,Prof G Markets, including a bearish stance from longtime bull NYU Stern finance professor Aswath Damodaran, who said the market was failing to price in a “potentially catastrophic” scenario.Recommended VideoHowever, one of Wall Street’s most experienced strategists has suggested that while a major selloff is inevitable, the risk to diversified retirement accounts is far more contained. Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management, explained his measured view to Galloway and Elson, acknowledging the current market’s extraordinary valuations while expressing skepticism about a catastrophic 40% drop.Cembalest referred to the financial figure known as “Dr. Doom” to summon up a picture of stock-market bears issuing warnings when the market begins to correct: “As soon as any asset falls by 10%, Nouriel Roubini and the rest of the [bearish] people come out of the woodwork and say, ‘Okay, this is it, this is the big one. Everything’s going to go down from here.’”Fortunehas covered similar warnings amid questions about an AI bubble, including those from self-described “perma-bear” Albert Edwards and the mega-popular Irish financial podcaster David McWilliams. But a correction doesn’t necessarily always pan out in a big crash, Cembalest pointed out.He also weighed in on the bearish stance of Damodaran, who warned that everything was overvalued and that if the Magnificent 10 went down by 40%, the panic would ripple through the entire market. Damodaran even went so far as to suggest that investors should move large portions of their portfolios into cash or collectibles. With no disrespect intended, Cembalest said there’s a difference between what a finance professor sees and what actual market participants see.“You know, professors are basically running fantasy baseball teams by coming out intermittently and telling you what their trades are. It’s not real money. It’s not real life,” he quipped.While the J.P. Morgan analyst agreed that the market relies heavily on extraordinary expectations, Cembalest argued that the current AI build-out lacks the systemic risk present in previous bubbles.Why a 40% crash is unlikelyIn his view, the crucial difference lies in financing: Previous capital spending booms, such as in fiber-optics or gas turbines, were primarily financed with debt, making them vulnerable to a sudden, systemic “unplug” by the debt markets. Today, the massive capital spending fueling the AI revolution is largely being financed with internally generated cash flow, not debt, with the notable exception of Oracle, he said.“That simply means it can go on for longer before it gets unplugged by the debt markets,” Cembalest noted, explaining that this dynamic “doesn’t relieve you of the ultimate need for there to be substantial profit generation,” but it does mitigate the risk of a sudden seizure in the financial system. This reduced systemic debt exposure suggests that the market will not “unravel into the big 40% corrections that we had in 2009” and then again in 2001, he added.Instead of a 40% collapse, Cembalest’s base case for the next few years includes a likely and more modest correction. He stated that when assets are trading at 20- to 25-year highs, they usually correct, but by smaller percentages. “It would be kind of shocking if you didn’t have some kind of profit-taking correction in 2026 at some point on the order of 10% to 15%.”What it means for the average investorFor the average investor or 401(k) participant, Cembalest said that the scale of the drawdown will require preparation but not panic. He noted that his firm’s normal balanced and conservative portfolios are already highly defensive, holding 30% to 40% in a combination of cash, cash equivalents, gold, diversified hedge funds, and short duration assets.The so-called bond king Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, told Galloway and Elson in a previous episode that gold was his “number one best idea for the year” and advocated for it to represent 25% of a portfolio—with the percentage dropping to 15% after it seemed to plateau around $4,000 per ounce.Individual investors can apply similar defensive strategies. Rather than drastically changing their allocation of funds, Cembalest said he was advising clients to switch from a growth portfolio to a more conservative or balanced one, aligning their risk tolerance with current high valuations.Furthermore, individual investors have the flexibility to act quickly during market turmoil, which institutional funds often lack. Cembalest recommends that investors begin accumulating “dry powder” now to take advantage of opportunities. Since corrections often tend to be “very V-shaped,” with a rapid, violent unwinding of risk followed by a quick snapback, having spare cash available allows investors to buy assets when they temporarily sell off.While Cembalest acknowledged the immense capital spending in AI—equivalent to the combined cost of the Manhattan Project, the Hoover Dam, and the Apollo program, relative to GDP—he concluded that a 12% to 15% correction scenario is currently more likely than the 40% worst-case outcome.And yet, as Elson noted in the podcast’s introduction, this kind of correction would still be significant to millions of investors and the entire economy: Cembalest’s base-case scenario is “kind of a big deal in and of itself.”Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy may have BlackRock to thank for the 11% rise in Bitcoin
Bitcoin is holding at just above $93,000 per coin this morning after staging a nearly 11% rally since its low on Nov. 22 of just above $84,000. Its recovery seems to have rescued Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the Bitcoin treasury company whose stock rose 3.9% yesterday and is up 8.4% over the past five sessions. It was up marginally this morning in overnight trading.Although Strategy’s market cap ($55.7 billion) remains below the value of the $60.6 billion in Bitcoin it owns, its mNAV ratio (net asset value expressed as enterprise value over its Bitcoin holdings) has risen to 1.16 this morning. If Strategy’s mNAV falls below one, owning the stock becomes a money-losing prospect, and the company said it may be theoretically forced into selling part of its Bitcoin hoard. Saylor may have BlackRock and its retail investors to thank for helping it avoid that crisis. In Q4 2025 so far, BlackRock’s Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) continued to add Bitcoin while most of the other ETFs sold off. “BlackRock, which, despite heavy outflows of roughly 23,226 BTC between Nov. 1 and Dec. 1, has still added a net 24,411 BTC compared with the previous quarter,” analyst Paul Hoffman wrote in a research note for BestBrokers.com, a site that ranks trading platforms.Recommended VideoBlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) now owns just under 60% of all Bitcoins owned by ETFs, he said, bringing its total to 776,474.65 coins as of Dec. 1. Its Q4 buying was preceded by the acquisition of another 71,236 coins in Q3, Hoffman wrote. That means BlackRock’s ETF, which retail investors use to buy Bitcoin without actually owning their own crypto wallet, now owns 3.9% of all existing Bitcoin—more than Strategy.BlackRock did not immediately respond to a request for comment fromFortune.IBIT is now BlackRock’s most profitable product, according to CoinDesk. Perhaps unsurprisingly, BlackRock chief Larry Fink is now fairly bullish on Bitcoin. Speaking at theNew York Times’ DealBook Summit on Wednesday, he admitted he once thought Bitcoin was for money laundering and thieves. Since then, “my thought process has evolved,” he said.“I see a big, large use case for Bitcoin, and I still do today,” he said. “In my role, I see thousands of clients a year. I meet with governmental leaders, and we have conversations that evolve my thinking. This is a very public example of a big shift in my opinion.”Also helping: news that Vanguard, which has long turned its nose up at crypto, will cave and offer its massive customer base another Bitcoin ETF.Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:S&P 500 futureswere flat this morning. The last session closed up 0.3%. TheSTOXX Europe 600was up 0.3% in early trading. The U.K.’sFTSE 100was up 0.14% in early trading. Japan’sNikkei 225was up 2.33%. China’sCSI 300was up 0.34%. The South KoreaKOSPIwas down 0.19%. India’sNifty 50is up 0.18%. Bitcoinwas flat at $93K.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
The Government Shut Down. Here’s What History Says Will Happen in the Stock Market Next
-->-->Key PointsThe government shutdown stems from a spending impasse, leading to the furloughing of 750,000 workers.Past shutdowns averaged 8 days, with the longest being 35 days in 2018-2019.TheS&P 500is up for five straight days, ignoring the government closure so far.It sounds nuts, but SoFi is giving new active invest users up to $1k in stock, see for yourself (Sponsor)-->-->The U.S. government shutdown, now in its third day since starting on October 1, stems from a partisan standoff over federal spending priorities. Republicans pushed for deeper cuts to non-defense programs, while Democrats demanded protections for social services and immigration reforms. With no resolution in sight, essential services continue, but about 750,000 federal workers face furloughs, delaying economic data releases like jobs reports. History shows these events average around 8 days, though the record-breaking 2018-2019 shutdown dragged on for 35 days, costing the economy billions. So far, markets have brushed it off: theS&P 500has risen each trading day since, including five straight gains. But history offers clear signals on what comes next. Shutdowns Aren’t New: A 50-Year RundownOver the past 50 years, the U.S. has seen 21 federal government shutdowns since the first in 1976 under President Gerald Ford. These lapses occur when Congress fails to pass funding bills by the fiscal year’s start on October 1. Early ones were brief, like the 11-day halt in 1976 over vetoed spending. Tensions peaked in the 1990s under divided government, with two multi-week shutdowns in late 1995 and early 1996 totaling 28 days combined.The 21st century brought more frequency amid polarization. From 2013 to 2019, shutdowns hit three times, including the 16-day one in 2013 over the Affordable Care Act and the marathon 35-day impasse in 2018-2019 tied to border wall funding. No major closures happened between 1996 and 2013, but recent years show rising risks. Each episode disrupts operations but rarely derails the economy long-term, as back pay and delayed work resume quickly.Loading stock data...History’s Bullish Hint for Stocks Post-ShutdownMarkets often rebound stronger after these disruptions. Data from the 21 shutdowns reveals the S&P 500 averaged nearly 13% returns in the 12 months following each end. Since 1980, the returns are even better, on average the S&P 500 gained 16.95%.During the events themselves, the index gained 0.3% on average, with gains in most cases. The 2018-2019 shutdown, despite its length, saw the S&P rise 10.3% while active, followed by a 24% surge over the next year.This pattern holds because shutdowns prove temporary, not structural shocks. Investors focus on earnings and growth, tuning out D.C. drama. With the current shutdown barely started, the S&P’s five-day winning streak — up 0.34% on day one, 0.06% on day two, and more since — mirrors that resilience. It suggests history could repeat, potentially fueling another leg higher if resolved soon.Why Stocks Keep Climbing Amid the NoiseEven with the shutdown, equities press on, driven by robust corporate momentum. Valuations look stretched — the S&P’s forward P/E ratio hovers near 22, above the long-term average of 17 — but gains persist. Key factors include cooling inflation, expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, and unrelenting artificial demand (AI) hype.Tech leaders dominate.Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA), the AI chip powerhouse, has surged 40% in 2025, pushing its market cap past $4.5 trillion. It’s locked in major deals, like a $100 billion investment inOpenAIannounced in September to build 10 gigawatts of AI data centers packed with millions of its GPUs. Nvidia also partnered withIntel(NASDAQ:INTC) on custom AI infrastructure, investing $5 billion in Intel stock to integrate NVLink tech. These moves solidify its grip on AI hardware, drawing billions in orders from cloud giants.Broader tailwinds also help: strong consumer spending, despite soft September job adds, and corporate buybacks. Energy and financials join the rally, betting on steady growth. TheDow Jones Industrial AverageandNasdaqindexes hit records too, showing broad participation.The Hidden Risks Lurking in the RallyBullish vibes aside, potential pitfalls are multiplying. Overextended valuations leave little margin for error; a prolonged shutdown could spike uncertainty, delaying hiring and capital expenditures. If it stretches past two weeks — and prediction markets say the adds of its happening are 40% — it might withhold key data, making Fed decisions hazier and rattling sentiment.AI’s promise also remains unproven. Hyped investments — hundreds of billions of dollars have poured into data centers and chips — have yielded scant returns so far. Although Nvidia’s deals dazzle, monetizing superintelligence is years off, with regulatory scrutiny rising on energy use and market dominance. Broader worries include tariff threats from recent policy shifts and softening private payrolls, hinting at economic wobbles. A debt ceiling fight could follow, amplifying volatility.Key TakeawayIrrational exuberance can endure far longer than expected, and forces like AI innovation and rate relief propel stocks upward. The market could climb much higher in the near term, shrugging off the shutdown as just another blip. Yet in this frothy setup, safeguarding against downside risk makes sense — history favors the bulls, but surprises happen.Want Up To $1,000? SoFi Is Giving New Active Invest Users up to $1k in StockLooking to grow your money but unsure where to begin? SoFi Active Invest is offering a limited-time promotion—open an account, fund it with $50 or more, and you could receive up to $1,000 in complimentary stock for Active Invest accounts.From $0 commission trading to fractional shares and automated investing, this app is designed to simplify investing for everyone, whether you’re just starting or already experienced. Its easy to sign up and secure your bonus.(sponsor)DISCLOSURE:INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUEBrokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, member FINRA(www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org).Advisory services are offered by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 30 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify.Other fees, such as exchange fees, may apply. Please view our fee disclosure to view a full listing of fees.Investing in alternative investments and/or strategies may not be suitable for all investors and involves unique risks, including the risk of loss. An investor should consider their individual circumstances and any investment information, such as a prospectus, prior to investing. Interval Funds are illiquid instruments, the ability to trade on your timeline may be restricted. Brokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA(www.finra.org) /SIPC(www.sipc.org).There are limitations with fractional shares to consider before investing. During market hours fractional share orders are transmitted immediately in the order received. There may be system delays from receipt of your order until execution and market conditions may adversely impact execution prices. Outside of market hours orders are received on a not held basis and will be aggregated for each security then executed in the morning trade window of the next business day at market open. Share will be delivered at an average price received for executing the securities through a single batched order. Fractional shares may not be transferred to another firm. Fractional shares will be sold when a transfer or closure request is initiated. Please consider that selling securities is a taxable event.Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire investment Before trading options please review the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options [HYPERLINK: https://www.theocc.com/getmedia/a151a9ae-d784-4a15-bdeb-23a029f50b70/riskstoc.pdfInvesting in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) involves substantial risk, including the risk of loss. Further, there are a variety of risk factors to consider when investing in an IPO, including but not limited to, unproven management, significant debt, and lack of operating history. For a comprehensive discussion of these risks please refer to SoFi Securities’ IPO Risk Disclosure Statement [HYPERLINK https://www.sofi.com/iporisk/]. This should not be considered a recommendation to participate in IPOs and investors should carefully read the offering prospectus to determine whether an offering is consistent with their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation. New offerings generally have high demand and there are a limited number of shares available for distribution to participants. Many customers may not be allocated shares and share allocations may be significantly smaller than the shares requested in the customer’s initial offer (Indication of Interest). For more information on the allocation process please visit IPO Allocation [HYPERLINK https://support.sofi.com/hc/en-us/articles/360058602892-How-does-SoFi-allocate-IPO-shares].
5 Best Dividend Stocks in the S&P 500
Key PointsThese dividend stocks have blue-chip businesses.Their payout ratios are low and cash flows are reliable.Each stock is in a different sector and is a leading name.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)Income investors rarely chase the loudest headlines. They look for companies that mail out checks, no matter what the talking heads predict for next quarter, and the S&P 500 is still the most convenient hunting ground for that kind of reliability.The index has been shifting more towards growth due to the mega-cap stocks doing extremely well over the past three years, and then being joined in by a new group of AI stocks that have ballooned into the top rankings. However, it also has some of the best dividend stocks you can find.The challenge is that the highest yields often sit on businesses whose earnings are shrinking faster than their share price, so a fat number on the screen can be a trap rather than a treat. The following five dividend stocks get you a greatyield that is both rising and sustainable.Realty Income (O)Realty Income (NYSE:O)is called “The Monthly Dividend Company” for good reason. It has been consistently returning cash to its shareholders while increasing the payout. The company is a real estate investment trust. Nevertheless, its clients are often stable retail companies that can weather downturns and keep growing.Realty Income has been able to declare 664 consecutive monthly dividends and is recognized as a Dividend Aristocrat stock for that long record.On top of that, Realty Income’s occupancy rate is among the highest in the REIT industry. Even in 2008, the occupancy rate stood at 97%. If it can pay dividends through the most intense recession to hit the real estate market in modern history, it can keep them rising during good times.You get a 5.39% dividend yield. The payout ratio is very sustainable at 75.45%.Verizon (VZ)Many would scoff atVerizon (NYSE:VZ)if it were portrayed as a good dividend stock two years ago. Today, the scenario has completely shifted. This telecom company had a boatload of debt on its balance sheet during one of the most aggressive periods of interest rate hikes, but managed to keep dividends flowing.Now, as interest rate cuts go down and the AI rally becomes the market’s main focus, VZ stock is becoming a very lucrative opportunity. Its stock has traded sideways year-to-date, but interest rate cuts directly help the company’s bottom line, plus the AI build-out is leading to more demand for Verizon’s extensive infrastructure.I expect VZ stock to follow in the footsteps ofAT&T (NYSE:T)stock in the coming quarters.In the meantime, you get a 6.85% forward dividend yield that has grown for 21 consecutive years. The icing on the cake is that Verizon’s dividend payout ratio is just 57.66%. As debt servicing eases, Verizon will be left with even more room for dividend hikes.Duke Energy (DUK)Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK)is a big electric and gas company that keeps the lights on and the gas flowing for its 7.5 million electric customers and 1.6 million gas customers across six states, mainly in the Southeast and Midwest.It’s one of the best dividend stocks you can buy in the current environment, thanks to tariffs plus interest rate cuts. Lower Treasury yields are making the 3.32% forward yield increasingly juicier when you consider the rate base growth.It has a 5-year CapEx plan of $87 billion to boost growth and margins, with regulators being wooed to approve better rates in exchange for those investments in their states.Furthermore, the Trump-2 admin wants “energy dominance” and is expediting transmission projects to keep up with demand from AI data centers.The payout ratio is 66.45%, and the company has had 14 consecutive years of dividend growth on record.Coca-Cola (KO)Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO)is a no-brainer pick for any portfolio of blue-chip dividend stocks. This company is often the first that comes to mind when you think about dividend payers with lasting power. Coca-Cola’s presence is worldwide, and the moat is too strong to ever crack.KO stock has been on a consistent trajectory for the past two decades. In all likelihood, the next two decades will bring more of the same, which is exactly what you want if you plan to buy, reinvest, and snowball your dividend investments.It also acts as a ballast for your portfolio due to how defensive the business is. Having a Coke after every meal is a habit not many people can give up on.You get a 2.86% dividend yield with a payout ratio of just 16.33%, meaning there’s massive room for significant payout hikes. There are 62 consecutive years of dividend growth on record.Merck (MRK)Merck (NYSE:MRK)makes and sells prescription medicines and vaccines. The company’s financial footing is strong, and you get a great buying opportunity today, as MRK stock trades at a 33%-plus discount from early 2024.Investors are increasingly concerned about the impending patent expiration of KeytrudaGardasil sales have also declined in China, and the guidance given in Q4 2024 for this year was disappointing.Merck is preparing prematurely by accelerating drug development, with a pipeline of 20 “potential new blockbuster drugs… could generate over $50 billion in future revenue”. Plus, its ADC platform is turning out to be a significant growth driver.This is a quality name, and analysts expect 16.25% EPS growth in 2025. That’s along with sales growing 1% this year and accelerating growth to 4.88% next year.You get a 3.7% forward dividend yield with a payout ratio of just 41.36%. There have been 14 consecutive years of dividend growth.If You’ve Been Thinking About Retirement, Pay Attention (sponsor)Answer a Few Simple Questions. 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There’s a ‘once-in-a-generation opportunity’ in these stocks right now, no matter how the AI boom ends, market veteran says
Wall Street has overlooked a class of stocks that typically outperforms the market but is currently offering the best bargain in nearly 30 years, according to Ruchir Sharma, chair of Rockefeller International.Recommended VideoIn aFinancial Timescolumn on Sunday, the market veteran said investors have thrown up their hands amid the ongoing debate about whether the AI boom is a bubble about to burst, while other assets look too pricey as well.“But there is a once-in-a-generation opportunity in global markets that could deliver strong returns regardless of how AI mania plays out,” he wrote. “The opportunity is in quality stocks, particularly those trading at relatively inexpensive prices.”Those stocks—which have high returns on equity, stable earnings growth, and low debt—have historically traded at high valuations, but not right now, Sharma said.They are currently 10 percentage points behind the broader market in developed economies and trailing by 17 points in emerging economies.“Typically, quality stocks have delivered their best returns after similar (but rare) periods of underperformance, which is why this moment feels so ripe,” he added.While the Magnificent Seven group of stocks has emerged as a symbol of the AI boom, some of them actually fall into the quality category, such as hyperscalers Alphabet and Microsoft, according to Sharma.That’s despite the Magnificent Seven soaring by more than 300% since late 2022, when OpenAI launched today’s AI boom. Leading the charge is AI chip leader Nvidia, which has skyrocketed more than 1,000%. It now has a market cap of more than $4 trillion, making Nvidia the most valuable stock on the market.The “real sweet spot” in quality stocks can be found after filtering out overvalued names, Sharma said, adding that the result is about 400 companies around the world out of the thousands that are publicly listed.They include stocks in the U.S., China, India, the U.K., and Brazil. And after screening for market caps above $10 billion, it yields companies like Lockheed Martin, CVS Health, Tesco, AstraZeneca, FirstRand, and Lenovo.This cream of the crop is trading at a 30% discount to the overall market, the widest gap since the late stages of the dotcom bubble, Sharma estimated.“From such valuation lows, and using standard methods to estimate future returns, this quality class can be expected to deliver absolute annual returns of nearly 15% for the next three years,” he predicted. “That is well ahead of expected returns for other asset classes and, perhaps most importantly, doesn’t require taking a view on if and when the AI mania will end.”Another big year for the S&P 500?Meanwhile, Wall Street remains upbeat on the overall stock market and expects the S&P 500 to keep putting up big gains next year, helped by more easing from the Federal Reserve, tax cuts, and hundreds of billions in additional spending from AI giants.Market guru Ed Yardeni sees the index soaring to 7,700 in 2026, indicating a 10% increase from his year-end 2025 view of 7,000.GDP growth, consumption, and corporate profits have been chugging along, and Yardeni said the decade should avoid an economy-wide recession, while “rolling recessions” may hit different industries at different times.Deutsche Bank is even more bullish and predicted the S&P 500 will finish next year at 8,000, representing a 17% jump from Friday’s close.“We see equities continuing to benefit from the cross-asset inflows boom,” analysts wrote in a note. “With earnings continuing to rise and companies indicating they are sticking with their capital allocation plans we expect robust buybacks to continue.”Elsewhere, JPMorgan expects the S&P 500 to end 2026 at 7,500, but added that it could go to 8,000 if the Fed keeps cutting rates.Analysts cited above-trend earnings growth, the AI capital spending boom, rising shareholder payouts, and fiscal policy easing via tax cuts.“More so, the earnings benefit tied to deregulation and broadening AI-related productivity gains remain underappreciated,” the bank said.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Billionaires are swapping art and cars for sports teams as their top ‘trophy’ investment, JPMorgan says
Forget typical old-money investments like art auctions and vintage cars. Today’s billionaires are pouring their money into their favorite sports teams instead—and turning them into serious investment plays.Recommended VideoCompared to the typical luxury investments we saw historically, sports ownership has shifted from a life hobby to a new business strategy for the world’s biggest earners, according to a new survey from JPMorgan Private Bank.In fact, pouring earnings into teams and arenas is the top specialty asset for these ultra-wealthy families. The bank said 34% of principals invest in teams and arenas, compared with 23% for art and 10% for cars. The report was part of JPMorgan’s 23 Wall division, which advises the wealthiest 0.01%. It surveyed 111 billionaire family-office principals controlling more than $500 billion in assets, and the share of those holding controlling stakes in sports teams has leaped to 20%, up from just 6% in 2022.Billionaires like Mark Walter have been cashing in in deals valued around $10 billion Billionaire Guggenheim Partners CEO Mark Walter exemplifies this latest investment trend. Following approval from the National Basketball Association, he acquired a majority stake in the Los Angeles Lakers in a deal valued at approximately $10 billion. Walter also owns the L.A. Dodgers. His net worth is valued around $7.3 billion. Other billionaires like Mark Cuban have seen big returns on their teams, too. In 2000, Cuban bought the Dallas Mavericks for about $285 million and later sold his majority stake in late 2023 for roughly $3.5 billion. Professional sports leagues are expanding private equity, with opportunity in women’s sports When it comes to billionaires and sports, the river flows both ways. Major sports associations like the NBA and NFL have also expanded their footprint in private equity.Nearly two-thirds of NBA teams entering the current 2025-26 season have at least some connection to private-equity money, a report found. That shift signals both rising valuations and institutional investors’ growing sway in professional sports.“This is a business pleasure, and something we really want to do,” one principal wrote in the report. “We are making a lot of money over time.”“Twenty years from now, people will not believe that you could acquire a women’s team for $100 million,” another said. Interest in women’s sports is growing. A separate study by McKinsey & Company found women’s sports could generate at least $2.5 billion in value for rights holders in the U.S. by 2030, a 250% increase from the $1 billion generated in 2024. Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Two Income ETFs Outperforming the S&P 500 This Year
I’m generally not a fan of chasing returns, whether they be in individual stocks or in mutual funds or exchange traded funds (ETFs). However, I also know that investors look for above-market returns, and want to at least check out the funds that outperformed broader indexes to see what companies these funds are invested in, and why there’s some sort of outperformance differential. -->-->Key PointsCreating passive income via investing in ETFs can seem like a good idea, but many don’t beat benchmarks like the S&P 500.Here are three that have, and why they look like buying opportunities here.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)-->-->To be honest, I’m a creature of curiosity as well, so this is one educational exercise I thought I’d dive into to provide some value to readers as well. I’m looking for income-focused ETFs that have outperformed the S&P 500 on a year-to-date basis (I put the end of September as the cut off date, for simplicity’s sake). As of Sep. 30, the S&P 500 produced a year-to-date return of around 14.5%, so let’s dive into three income ETFs that managed to beat this benchmark and why. Laffer Tengler Equity Income ETF (TGLR)Loading stock data...One ETF I haven’t touched on in the past, but which has clearly been a winner thus far this year, is the Laffer Tengler Equity Income ETF (TGLR). Shares of TGLR are up more than 20% at the time of writing, providing investors with a spread of around 6% over and above the performance of the benchmark S&P 500 index. What’s impressive about this performance is the fact that the Laffer Tengler Equity Income ETF is concentrated on large-cap U.S. stocks. Given the high concentration of mega-cap stocks within the S&P 500 (indices are typically weighted by market capitalization), one might expect to see much more consistent performance. Now, both funds do provide investors with very high correlation to the same assets. But for a fund like TGLR that has an even more aggressive size and quality tilt, one can expect to see outperformance and underperformance, depending on the point in the market cycle we’re in. For those who think this rally can continue, and want to invest in an ETF that uses a 12-factor model to pick stocks on the basis of valuation and dividend potential, this is a great way to go. Franklin U.S. Core Dividend Tilt ETF (UDIV)Loading stock data...Another top dividend-focused ETF which managed to beat the market (excluding its dividend yield of 1.5%, still higher than the S&P 500’s) is the Franklin U.S. Core Dividend Tilt ETF (UDIV). This ETF is up approximately 15.5% this year, driven by strong growth seen in the a wide range of sectors.Unlike the other ETFs on this list that have tilted their portfolios more aggressively toward tech stocks, UDIV has a more balanced and moderate portfolio of a range of companies in varying industries. Now, these companies clearly have outsized growth potential, or this fund would not have beaten the overall S&P 500 since the beginning of the year. But I also think this fund’s core holdings having higher dividend yields than other comparable income ETFs does signal a trend which could be coming to the surface – more investors want to own income-paying equities as interest rates come down.For investors who think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again, this is a top ETF to consider right now. At least, that’s my view. ProShares S&P Technology Dividend Artistocrats ETF (TDV)Loading stock data...Last, but certainly not least on this list of income ETFs that have outperformed the broader market is the ProShares S&P Technology Dividend Aristocrats ETF (TDV). This ETF has posted a year-to-date performance of around 16.5%, so investors in this fund have had even better of a run than those in SPY, at least thus far in 2025.That shouldn’t make too many investors confused, since this ETF is almost entirely tech focused. As is the case with other market-beating funds, it’s really impossible to beat the S&P 500 without being even more overweight tech than the broader index. That’s the case here, with the TDV ETF tracking the S&P 500 Technology Dividend Aristocrats, a group of companies that have maintained dividends for at least seven years. What’s interesting about this fact is that many of the “Magnificent 7” and similar mega-cap tech stocks either don’t pay a dividend, or haven’t for seven years. Thus, the quality of companies within this portfolio, and the selection process behind the scenes does appear to be world-class. If You have $500,000 Saved, Retirement Could Be Closer Than You Think (sponsor)Retirement can be daunting, but it doesn’t need to be.Imagine having an expert in your corner to help you with your financial goals. Someone to help you determine if you’re ahead, behind, or right on track. With SmartAsset, that’s not just a dream—it’s reality. This free tool connects you with pre-screened financial advisors who work in your best interests. It’s quick, it’s easy, so take the leap today and start planning smarter!Don’t waste another minute; get started right here and help your retirement dreams become a retirement reality.(sponsor)
‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry calls Tesla stock ‘ridiculously overvalued’ and warns on Musk’s pay plan
TheBig Shortinvestor who predicted the 2008 housing market crash said EV maker Tesla is “ridiculously overvalued” and warned CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay plan will only make it worse.Recommended Video“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Michael Burry, who last month deregistered his hedge fund Scion Asset Management, wrote in a post on a newly launched Substack account.Burry said Tesla dilutes its shareholders at an estimated rate of 3.6% per year thanks to the stock-based compensation it awards employees without buybacks to offset the impact. Musk’s gargantuan compensation would make matters worse, he added. The 2025 pay plan, overwhelmingly approved by shareholders last month, could give Musk at least tens of millions of additional Tesla shares that could further dilute existing shareholders’ holdings. At the high end, Musk would receive hundreds of millions of shares that would raise his Tesla stake to 29% from a current 15%, as long as he meets rigorous goals.Yet by reaching two of the more achievable goals needed to unlock his pay, Musk could potentially benefit more than the shareholders who have backed him, reportedFortune’s Shawn Tully.The company’s stock was trading at about $426 Monday, down less than 1% after Burry’s blog post was published, but still up more than 6% year to date on the rebound from a major stock slump earlier in the year. Apart from Tesla’s being overvalued, Burry also took a shot at the company’s superfans, saying Tesla’s top priority is a moving target.“As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots—until competition shows up,” the legendary investor said.Tesla did not immediately respond toFortune’s request for comment. Still, Burry’s stance is not the consensus among Wall Street. Despite his bearish predictions, about three-quarters of analysts have a buy or hold rating on Tesla.After Tesla shareholders approved Musk’s pay package last month, Tesla bull Dan Ives and his team at Wedbush Securities reaffirmed their support of the CEO and his vision for the company.Correction, Dec. 2, 2025:A previous version of this article misstated Burry’s position on Tesla stock. He did not announce a short bet.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
This ETF (SPXL) Can Triple Your Returns in a Bull Market
-->-->Key PointsThe SPXL ETF does a good job of achieving 3x daily returns of the S&P 500 index.However, investors shouldn’t count on SPXL to triple the gains of the S&P 500 over the long term.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)-->-->Trading theDirexion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares (NYSEARCA:SPXL) can be thrilling or chilling, and it’s definitely not for the faint of heart. Depending on your tolerance for swift price moves, SPXL is an exchange traded fund (ETF) that might be completely right or wrong for you.Along with a willingness to accept the risks, you should have a bullish outlook on the S&P 500 if you intend to hold the SPXL ETF. With the right mind-set and certain safeguards in place, you might profit handsomely from the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF.Potential to Grow Your Account QuicklyTo break it down into simple terms, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF seeks to achieve “daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300%… of the performance of” the S&P 500 stock index. Thus, SPXL would be considered a bullish, triple/3x leveraged ETF.Momentum-focused traders could look at the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF and envision growing their accounts rapidly. The S&P 500 is up 14.5% year to date, and the SPXL ETF is up 28%.Loading stock data...You might wonder why the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF is only up twice as much as the S&P 500 instead of three times as much. After all, SPXL is supposed to be triple-leveraged, right?We’ll explain the fine print and the fund’s associated risks in a moment. For now, however, it’s worth noting that many stock-market bulls will find the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF to be strongly appealing. Unless some event (recession, war, etc.) derails this year’s stock-market rally, the SPXL ETF could produce huge gains in the coming months.Paying for ConvenienceTo potentially magnify the gains of the S&P 500 index, you could trade S&P 500 futures contracts. However, not everyone wants to learn the ins and outs of leveraged futures trading, and it may require a large amount of capital.For many investors, it will probably be more convenient and feasible to simply buy the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF. This ETF is tradable within many investment accounts and doesn’t require knowledge of futures contracts or other sophisticated asset types.Be aware, though, that you’ll pay for the convenience that the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF offers. Specifically, the SPXL ETF automatically deducts 0.87% worth of operating expenses per year from the share price.An annual expense ratio of 0.87% might not sound like much if you’re imagining vast profits from the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF. Nevertheless, the expenses can take a toll on your portfolio’s bottom line if you plan to hold SPXL for the long term.The Impact of Volatility DecayAn even bigger risk than the fund’s expenses, though, is a phenomenon known as volatility decay. It explains why the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF has only doubled the year-to-date gains of the S&P 500 instead of tripling those gains.Sure, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF seeks to achieve the “daily investment results” of 3x the S&P 500’s price moves. And in that respect, the SPXL ETF does a good job.Due to volatility decay, however, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF won’t necessarily achieve 3x the S&P 500’s price gains over weeks, months, or years. For example, if the S&P 500 falls 1% and then rises 1% — or rises 1% and then falls 1% — SPXL will end up lower than where it started.That type of up-and-down or down-and-up price action is bound to occur again and again with the S&P 500. Consequently, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF won’t produce the long-term results you might expect with a triple-leveraged S&P 500 fund.Treat SPXL With Due CautionAt the end of the day, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF could benefit short-term traders. The fund does a respectable job of achieving triple-leveraged returns on the single-day price moves of the S&P 500 stock index.Yet, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF isn’t ideal for a long-term buy-and-hold strategy. Due to the annual expenses and the volatility decay, SPXL is likely to produce disappointing results if you’re expecting triple-leveraged long-term gains on the S&P 500.Furthermore, if the S&P 500 declines for a while, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF could lose value rapidly. Hence, it’s wise to only take a small share position if you plan to own the SPXL ETF, and be prepared to exit your position in a matter of days rather than weeks or months.If You have $500,000 Saved, Retirement Could Be Closer Than You Think (sponsor)Retirement can be daunting, but it doesn’t need to be. Imagine having an expert in your corner to help you with your financial goals. Someone to help you determine if you’re ahead, behind, or right on track. With SmartAsset, that’s not just a dream—it’s reality. This free tool connects you with pre-screened financial advisors who work in your best interests. It’s quick, it’s easy, so take the leap today and start planning smarter!Don’t waste another minute; get started right here and help your retirement dreams become a retirement reality.(sponsor)
Quant who said passive era is ‘worse than Marxism’ doubles down
Inigo Fraser Jenkins once warned that passive investing was worse for society than Marxism. Now he says even that provocative framing may prove too generous.Recommended VideoIn his latest note, the AllianceBernstein strategist argues that the trillions of dollars pouring into index funds aren’t just tracking markets — they are distorting them. Big Tech’s dominance, he says, has been amplified by passive flows that reward size over substance. Investors are funding incumbents by default, steering more capital to the biggest names simply because they already dominate benchmarks.He calls it a “dystopian symbiosis”: a feedback loop between index funds and platform giants like Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Nvidia Corp. that concentrates power, stifles competition, and gives the illusion of safety. Unlike earlier market cycles driven by fundamentals or active conviction, today’s flows are automatic, often indifferent to risk.Fraser Jenkins is hardly alone in sounding the alarm. But his latest critique has reignited a debate that’s grown harder to ignore. Just 10 companies now account for more than a third of the S&P 500’s value, with tech names driving an outsize share of 2025’s gains.“Platform companies and a lack of active capital allocation both imply a less effective form of capitalism with diminished competition,” he wrote in a Friday note. “A concentrated market and high proportion of flows into cap weighted ‘passive’ indices leads to greater risks should recent trends reverse.” While the emergence of behemoth companies might be reflective of more effective uses of technology, it could also be the result of failures of anti-trust policies, among other things, he argues. Artificial intelligence might intensify these issues and could lead to even greater concentrations of power among firms. His note, titled “The Dystopian Symbiosis: Passive Investing and Platform Capitalism,” is formatted as a fictional dialog between three people who debate the topic. One of the characters goes as far as to argue that the present situation requires an active policy intervention — drawing comparisons to the breakup of Standard Oil at the start of the 20th century — to restore competition.data-srcyloadIn a provocative note titled “The Silent Road to Serfdom: Why Passive Investing is Worse Than Marxism” and written nearly a decade ago, Fraser Jenkins argued that the rise of index-tracking investing would lead to greater stock correlations, which would impede “the efficient allocation of capital.” His employer, AllianceBernstein, has continued to launch ETFs since the famous research was published, though its launches have been actively managed. Other active managers have presented similar viewpoints — managers at Apollo Global Management last year said the hidden costs of the passive-investing juggernaut included higher volatility and lower liquidity. There have been strong rebuttals to the critique: a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. study showed the role of fundamentals remains an all-powerful driver for stock valuations; Citigroup Inc. found that active managers themselves exert a far bigger influence than their passive rivals on a stock’s performance relative to its industry.“ETFs don’t ruin capitalism, they exemplify it,” said Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior ETF analyst. “The competition and innovation are through the roof. That is capitalism in its finest form and the winner in that is the investor.”Since Fraser Jenkins’s “Marxism” note, the passive juggernaut has only grown. Index-tracking ETFs, which have grown in popularity thanks to their ease of trading and relatively cheaper management fees, are often cited as one of the primary culprits in this debate. The segment has raked in $842 billion so far this year, compared with the $438 billion hauled in by actively managed funds, even as there are more active products than there are passive ones, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Of the more than $13 trillion that’s in ETFs overall, $11.8 trillion is parked in passive vehicles. The majority of ETF ownership is concentrated in low-cost index funds that have significantly reduced the cost for investors to access financial markets. In Fraser Jenkins’s new note, one of his fictitious characters ask another what the “dystopian symbiosis” implies for investors. “The passive index is riskier than it has been in the past,” the character answers. “The scale of the flows that have been disproportionately into passive cap-weighted funds with a high exposure to the mega cap companies implies the risk of a significant negative wealth effect if there is an upset to expectations for those large companies.”Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
This High-Yield Stock Has Paid Dividends for Half a Century
Of the stocks that pay large dividends, the safest is probably the tobacco company Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO). Its 6.45% yield is based on a forward dividend of $4.24. Over the past 56 years, it has raised its dividend 60 times. The median age of Americans is 39 years.-->-->24/7 Wall St. Key Points:Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) is probably the safest high-yield stock.The tobacco company has raised its dividend annually for over 50 years.Are you ahead, or behind on retirement? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with a financial advisor in minutes to help you answer that today. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; learn more here.(Sponsor)-->-->Loading stock data...So far this year, Altria has offered another benefit, which is relatively unusual for high-yield stocks. The share price has risen 26% since the start of the year. The S&P 500 is 13% higher in that time. Megacap tech companies are considered the stock market leaders this year. However, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is flat in 2025 and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is up 1%.In terms of decades-long high yields, the two most often mentioned in the same breath as Altria are Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) and Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE). Pfizer’s stock is down 10% this year. Dow’s is down 42% this year, and it recently cut its dividend.In total, Altria has paid out $32 billion in dividends over the fiscal years 2020 to 2024. It has also purchased $8 billion of its shares during the same period.In the most recently reported quarter, Altria’s revenue was down 6% to $5.3 billion. However, its adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) were up 6% to $1.23. It affirmed its guidance of a 2% to 5% increase in EPS for the full year. Its success in the most recent quarter came from its legacy business: Billy Gifford, Altria’s chief executive officer, commented, “Our highly profitable traditional tobacco businesses performed well in a challenging environment in the first quarter.”Almost all of Altria’s revenue comes from sales of cigarettes, and there is a theory that many investors are hesitant to buy its stock for this reason. However, the dividend is a significant incentive to offset that.Another Reason to InvestAnother reason to consider investing in Altria is the potential risk to the global economy. People typically do not cut back on cigarette smoking in tough economic times. Altria’s dividend is unlikely to disappear, as the company’s balance sheet is very solid.The stock market has become perilous, according to those who believe it has reached its peak. President Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on imports from several major nations, which could drive up U.S. inflation. His latest threat is a 30% tariff on Mexican imports. Mexico is the second-largest trading partner of the United States.An increase in tariffs and the effects on inflation mean American consumers’ buying power will be hit. That, in turn, threatens U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). Under those circumstances, Altria may be the best stock to own. That is, if investors can ignore its tobacco business.Altria Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030Get Ready To Retire (Sponsored)Start by taking a quick retirement quiz from SmartAsset that will match you with up to 3 financial advisors that serve your area and beyond in 5 minutes, or less.Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests.Here’s how it works:1. Answer SmartAsset advisor match quiz2. Review your pre-screened matches at your leisure. Check out the advisors’ profiles.3. Speak with advisors at no cost to you. Have an introductory call on the phone or introduction in person and choose whom to work with in the future.
U.S. stocks lift on the last day of November as Wall Street eagerly awaits the results of Black Friday
U.S. stocks opened with gains on the final trading day of November.The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and needs a slightly larger gain to avoid its first down month since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 138 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%.Coinbase Global added 3.6% as bitcoin rose above $92,000 after dropping to around $81,000 last week. The world’s most popular cryptocurrency is still well below its all-time high of around $125,000 set in early October.Most tech stocks posted gains, with Meta Platforms rising 1.4% and Micron Technology adding 2.8%. But Nvidia, the market’s most valuable stock, fell 1% and is headed for a double-digit loss for the month. Oracle another high-flyer that struggled this month, fell 2.3%.Wall Street is operating on an abbreviated schedule Friday after being closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Stock trading closes at 1 p.m. ET.Earlier, futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were halted for hours due to a technical issue at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. CME said the problem was tied to an outage at a CyrusOne data center.After slumping earlier this month as investors worried that many of the tech stocks that were propelled higher by the frenzy over artificial intelligence, stocks have risen for four straight trading sessions on hopes the Federal Reserve will again cut interest rates at its meeting next month.Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have given traders more confidence the central bank will again cut interest rates at its meeting that ends Dec. 10. Traders are betting on a nearly 87% probability that the Fed will cut next month, according to data from CME Group.The central bank, which has already cut rates twice this year in hopes of shoring up the slowing job market, is facing an increasingly difficult decision on interest rates as inflation rises and the job market slows. Cutting interest rates further could help support the economy as employment weakens, but it could also fuel inflation. The latest round of corporate earnings reports was mostly positive, but economic data has been mixed.The minutes of the Fed’s most recent meeting in October indicate there are likely to be strong divisions among policymakers about the Fed’s next step.Treasury yields held mostly steady, with the 10-year yield at 4.01%.In European trading, Germany’s DAX rose 0.3% as traders awaited inflation data set to be released later in the day.Britain’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.3% on gains in energy and mining stocks. The CAC 40 in France also rose 0.2%.In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 0.2% higher to 50,253.91, rebounding from losses earlier in the day. Data showed Japan’s housing starts rose 3.2% in October from the same period a year ago, the first annual increase since March. The number defied market expectations of 5.2% decline and reversed a 7.3% drop in September.South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.5% after the country’s industrial production fell 4% month-on-month in October, more than the 1.1% decline in September.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
Nano Nuclear Energy (Nasdaq: NNE) Shoots Up 20% On Nuclear Sentiment Change
Nano Nuclear Energy (Nasdaq: NNE) is going vertical today, with shares up over 20% on an ongoing sentiment shift towards nuclear energy amid positive developments for the industry, and Nano in particular.In a validating moment just 11 days ago Nano was included in the S&P Global Broad Market Index (BMI). According to the press release from Nano:“With more than 14,000 companies included, the BMI provides the foundation for institutional investors, ETFs, and strategy indices — including those focused on factors and ESG investing.”The renaissance of nuclear energy from environmental problem child to champion of ESG is quite a shift, but Nano Nuclear is clearly benefiting from the changing sentiment. They are not the only one, either. Fellow nuclear power company Oklo is up over 9% today. As the saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats.And what a tide it’s been. President Trump signed a deal with the UK to build a dozen nuclear reactors in the country, and has promised to fast track permitting domestically as AI data centers start forecasting power needs on par with major cities. Elon Musk’s ambitions with Colossus is resulting in him rehabilitating a plant capable of generating over a gigawatt of power, enough to power 800,000 US homes.Nano Nuclear, Oklo, and others are riding a wave of ever-increasing tech ambitions. AI is not a normal investment cycle, but an arms race that executives see as a must-win, and existential moment for them. Larry Page has apparently said of Alphabet that “I am willing to go bankrupt rather than lose this race”When you combine the free cash flow power of companies like Google (which generated $73 of free cash flow last year) add it Meta, Apple, Amazon and others, and then mix with the US government now seeing nuclear energy as essential not only to winning the AI race but also national security and manufacturing broadly… well you get an absolute tsunami of capital that can only benefit companies like Nano Nuclear Energy for years to come.If you’re one of the over 4 Million Americans retiring this year, pay attention. (sponsor)Finding a financial advisor who puts your interest first can be the difference between a rich retirement and barely getting by, and today it’s easier than ever. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to three fiduciary financial advisors that serve your area in minutes. Each advisor has been carefully vetted, and must act in your best interests. Don’t waste another minute; get started right here and help your retirement dreams become a retirement reality.(sponsor)
Top Dividend Stocks Poised for Explosive Growth in 2026 (ABBV, GD, RGR)
-->Key PointsNew laws, policy initiatives, and geopolitical events are reshaping society, and certain companies are already on track to capitalize on these changes.Both S&P 500 and small cap companies that also pay dividends may be seeing substantial growth over the next few years as a result of these events and the strategic market demand timing for their products.Investors seeking to diversify away from the tech sector might wish to look more closely at the sectors represented by the stocks included here.It sounds nuts, but SoFi is giving new active invest users up to $1k in stock, see for yourself (Sponsor)-->-->Geopolitical events, judicial rulings, new law legislation, and policy changes are all circumstances occurring on domestic and international stages that are triggering big stock moves in various industrial sectors. The impact is being demonstrated on both large-cap and small-cap companies. While investing in companies that are exhibiting potential large growth prospects for the coming 12-months is always finding companies with the addition of a dividend is always a welcome bonus. Abbvie Inc.Abbvie is establishing workarounds to comply with President Trump’s US MFN status for drug pricing while minimizing the impact to its bottom line.In August 20224, Morgan Stanley predicted a price target of $250.00, whenAbbvie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV)was trading at $189.00 At the time of this writing, it is trading between $235 and its 52-week high of $244.81. Perhaps a few weeks off, but certainly on track. Its 2.79% yield is also a nice cherry on top of a lucrative stock. Chicago headquartered Abbvie Inc. is one of the top 5 largest biotech and pharma companies, with treatments for various forms of blood, skin, prostate, and organ cancers, as well as autoimmune diseases, skin ailments, and gastrointestinal disorders.Other Abbvie prescription drugs deal with such afflictions as:Parkinson’s diseaseOcular diseaseHepatitisEndometriosisAnemiaIBSHypothyroidismPancreatitisUterine FibroidsChronic MigrainesAdditionally, Abbvie markets Botox, facial injectables, plastic surgery adjuncts, body and skin care products, both therapeutic and cosmetic. Abbvie’s newly approved Emrelis differs uniquely in a number of ways from its competitors in the solid tumor oncology space and is causing a buzz in the cancer treatment industry. Emrelis has an approach towards targeting, strategic positioning, and methodology of action that has no similarity to any other oncology drugs, making it stand apart. Focusing on C-MET biomarkers, versus HER2 or TROP2, it can more precisely target small-cell lung cancer tumors without the potential DNA damage risk that is inherent with current treatments from some of Abbie’s rivals.As the solid tumor category has long been one in which Abbvie lagged, Emrelis could be a big boost for the company’s fortunes. Morgan Stanley cited it as one of the reasons for its $250 target price for Abbvie. Abbvie has addressed President Trump’s “Most Favorite Nation” drug pricing executive order by lowering domestic US prices for products like ovarian cancer treatment Elahere, which now matches its UK price. Other strategies to be deployed to avoid adverse revenue impact includes direct-to-consumer sales and increased domestic lab facilities, including a new, $70 million Bioresearch Center in Massachusetts. General Dynamics Corp.General Dynamics recently announced a new $641 million contract from the US Navy for additional Virginia class submarines.By renaming The Department of Defense the Department of War, the Administration has declared that the US will no longer turn a blind eye to deadly threats from abroad. Most recently, the news has carried several video clips of US naval forces intercepting and destroying US-bound Venezuelan drug smuggling vessels before they can reach our borders. US maritime military strength is derived from its logistical and tactical ability to handle threats, which is a result of the vessels built by contractors likeGeneral Dynamics Corp. (NYSE: GD).Secretary of War Hegseth is heading an initiative to revamp the lethality of US armed forces, and command of state-of-the art weaponry and logistics from General Dynamics and its rivals are a big part of this project. General Dynamics Corp. is the 5th largest US military contractor by total sales. It designs, produces, and supplies tactical sea, land, and air transport along with corresponding weaponry. Currently paying a 1.76% dividend, the stock is already up 32.52% year-to-date, and new international threats and deployments appear to indicate that this will not only continue, but escalate. Sea:Founded in 1899 and based out of Reston, VA, General Dynamics’ predecessor was The Electric Boat Company, which developed the first modern naval submarine, which was purchased by the US Navy in 1900. The relationship with the maritime branch of the US armed services continues to this day. General Dynamics supplies the nuclear-powered, missile equipped Virginia and Columbia class submarines. It also makes the Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers. A new $642 million contract for additional Virginia class submarines was recently announced. Land:For surface operations, General Dynamics’ M1 Abrams tanks, Light Armored Vehicles (LAV), Howitzers, Strykers, Wolverine Assault Bridges, and Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV) amphibious assault vehicles have all contributed heavily to US defense platforms. Other land based tactical transport vehicles for weaponry and personnel, mobile launchers for missiles, etc. would also fall into this category.Air:Involvement in Aerospace is what prompted a name change from “The Electric Boat Company” to “General Dynamics”. Aviation projects initiated in Canada, when underperforming Canadair was acquired by Electric Boat. This led to a number of Cold War-era sales to the Royal Canadian Air Force transport, fighter, and patrol aircraft prior to that division being sold in the 1970s to Bombardier. During that same period, Convair, which made bombers for the US Air Force during WWII, was also acquired for US aviation projects. General Dynamics would proceed to collaborate with Grumman (before its merger with Northrop) to develop the F-111 tactical fighter, which served as the prototype for Grumman’s subsequent F-14 Tomcat success, which was showcased in the first Tom CruiseTop Gunmovie. General Dynamics would go on to its own success with the F-16 Fighting Falcon. The F-16 has become the world’s most common fixed-wing military aircraft, with roughly 3,000 F-16s in operation around the globe at present. Missile systems and weaponry: General Dynamics’s subsidiaries created the SM-65 Atlas, which was the first US Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM). It would be followed by Stinger Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAM), Rolling Airframe Missiles (RAM), Tomahawk, and other missiles. The Phalanx CIWS maritime ship gun, GAU-17 and GAU-19 guns, avionics for drone systems, electronics, big data analytics and communications systems would also fall into this category.IT:General Dynamic’s military Information Technology unit is highly regarded. It recently secured a $1.5 billion US Strategic Command IT modernization contract, primarily for cybersecurity protection over US nuclear weapons. Non military subsidiaries: In addition to its military projects. General Dynamics is involved with commercial shipbuilding or tankers and cargo vessels, and owns private jet manufacturer Gulfstream. The primary factors responsible for these double digit gains are global instability. General Dynamics equipment comprises a significant portion of arms deals to Israel for its war against Hamas terrorists in Gaza and to the war in Ukraine. US naval submarine deployments are increasing in the Indo-Pacific region due to new assessments of Chinese naval threats. The Pentagon also needs to replenish its missile supplies due to the Biden administration’s debacle in Afghanistan and its voluminous shipments in support of Ukraine.Sturm, Ruger & Co.The Ruger Blackhawk is still a popular revolver for handgun enthusiasts looking a .357 or .44 Magnum alternative to Smith and Wesson.Since the Supreme Court ruled to support the Second Amendment in the D.C. vs. Heller decision, personal gun ownership rights began to once again assert themselves against the anti-gun lobbies. Blue State policies favoring gun confiscation have lost support as a result of horrific murders, rapes, and assalts by repeat offenders set free through ineffective enforcement and lax local laws. This October, the Supreme Court is deliberating on another case that may extend concealed carry rights even further. 24/7 Wall Street recently published an updated article on open carry rights in each state. US firearms manufacturerSturm, Ruger, & Co. (NYSE: RGR)is currently sporting a 1.56% yield, is trading within 75 cents of its 52-week high, and currently has a “Strong Buy” rating from 57% of the analysts covering the stock. Announcements such as Florida’s confirmation on the legality of open carry in the state is expected to spread even further across the nation.Ruger’s Mini-14 is still a top selling alternative to the AR-15 due to its wood stock and less “assault rifle” looking appearance, while its .22, Blackhawk, and Redhawk revolvers are still popular sellers.Recent disclosures of the venerable 500-year old gun manufacturing legend Beretta owning a sizable minority stake in Ruger has led to speculation of some joint future projects. Ruger stock is up 28.02% year-to-date. The enthusiasm behind the current support for the stock is a welcome bounce back from the doldrums over the past five years, where crime proliferated and gun control laws suppressed legal ownership in many blue states, in direct contradiction to the Second Amendment. Thankfully, this trend has reversed, and Ruger appears to be a primary beneficiary. Want Up To $1,000? SoFi Is Giving New Active Invest Users up to $1k in StockLooking to grow your money but unsure where to begin? SoFi Active Invest is offering a limited-time promotion—open an account, fund it with $50 or more, and you could receive up to $1,000 in complimentary stock for Active Invest accounts.From $0 commission trading to fractional shares and automated investing, this app is designed to simplify investing for everyone, whether you’re just starting or already experienced. Its easy to sign up and secure your bonus.(sponsor)DISCLOSURE:INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUEBrokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, member FINRA(www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org).Advisory services are offered by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 30 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify.Other fees, such as exchange fees, may apply. 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